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    Oracle (ORCL) Could Be 26% Undervalued On Q1 Results And $90b Sales View

    Simply Wall St·09/16/2026 22:26:55
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    Oracle (ORCL) is back in focus after Q1 fiscal 2027 results showed revenue of US$19.3b and net income of US$4.8b, alongside fresh guidance pointing to at least US$90b in full year sales.

    Despite the upbeat Q1 print and fresh guidance, Oracle’s recent trading has been weak, with the share price at US$143.16 after a 7-day share price return of down 11.43% and a year-to-date share price return of down 26.85%.

    That pullback sits against a much harsher 1-year total shareholder return of down 51.96%. However, the 3-year and 5-year total shareholder returns of 31.39% and 73.16% still reflect gains for longer term holders. This indicates that recent momentum has faded as investors weigh heavy AI data center spending, restructuring charges and fresh layoffs against the very large AI cloud backlog and new contract wins.

    Scan how Oracle’s reset fits into the wider AI buildout by comparing it with 60 AI infrastructure stocks now leading the charge in data center, cloud, and power grid capacity.

    Oracle now trades far below both its analyst price target and several intrinsic value estimates. After such a sharp slide, where does a reasonable fair value band actually land for this stock?

    Most Popular Narrative: 26% Undervalued

    Oracle’s most followed valuation storyline pegs fair value at $192.59, comfortably above the last close at $143.16. This frames the latest selloff as a sizable discount in that framework.

    To calculate the intrinsic value of the company I will use multiple methods.

    Discounted Cash Flows (DCF): Intrinsic value is estimated by projecting its free cash flows over the next 10 years and discounting them to present value using the estimated cost of capital.

    See why 76 investors see Oracle as 26% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $192.59 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, heavy AI data center investment and very high uncertainty scores around Oracle’s future cash flows could quickly weaken conviction in that 26% undervalued story.

    Find out about the key risks to this Oracle narrative.

    Next Steps

    Oracle now has a mix of pressures and bright spots, so move quickly, review the full data set, and weigh both sides yourself with 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

    Looking For More Oracle-Sized Investment Ideas?

    If Oracle has you rethinking your portfolio mix, do not stop here. Use this pullback as a prompt to refresh your watchlist with fresh, high quality ideas.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.