Is Moderna (MRNA) Fully Valued Going Into Earnings?

Moderna (MRNA) moved back into focus after its shares closed at US$146.69, rising 1.89% on a day when major indexes fell, ahead of an earnings report expected to show weaker EPS and revenue.

Over the past month, Moderna has delivered a 30 day share price return of 127.05%, contributing to a year to date share price gain of 365.88% and a one year total shareholder return of 478.78%. However, the five year total shareholder return is down 66.88%, which shows very strong recent momentum coming off a weak longer term base as investors reassess both growth prospects and risk ahead of the earnings update.

See how Moderna's sharp move fits into the wider rebound in higher risk biotech by reviewing the hand picked 2 elite penny stocks with strong financials today.

After a move this sharp, Moderna either has most of the good news already packed into the share price, or the rerating only covers the first leg. The numbers now need to show which side you are on.

Most Popular Narrative: 225% Overvalued

At a last close of $143.77 against a narrative fair value of $44.25, Moderna screens as heavily priced, with that gap hinging on how the mRNA pipeline and flu progress translate into real earnings power over time.

The dramatic expansion and advancement of Moderna's mRNA pipeline beyond COVID-19, including recent positive late-stage data and upcoming filings for flu, RSV, CMV, oncology, and rare diseases, are likely to diversify the revenue base, capitalize on the rising global burden of infectious and chronic diseases, and materially boost future top-line growth.

See why 215 investors see Moderna as 225% overvalued.

Result: Fair Value of $44.25 (OVERVALUED)

Still, the story can change quickly if COVID vaccine demand keeps fading or flu uptake lags the projections that analysts are using to justify Moderna’s current valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Moderna narrative.

Next Steps

If this all feels split between excitement and caution, that is the point. It is exactly why you should move fast and test Moderna against your own framework using the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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