Nvidia (NVDA.US) Rubin Platform Drives MLCC Value Increase, Damo Expected Market Size to Reach US$44.4 Billion in 2031

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley recently released a global technology industry report stating that as AI servers and data centers continue to expand, multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) are becoming a new key beneficiary link in the AI infrastructure industry chain. The bank believes that investment opportunities brought by AI are spreading further from semiconductors such as GPUs to high-end electronic components such as MLCCs, and MLCCs are still in the early stages of the penetration cycle of AI servers and racks. The tightening supply and demand for high-volume, high-value-added products is expected to drive changes in the industry's revenue structure, profitability, and valuation system.

Morgan Stanley predicts that the global MLCC market is expected to enter a period of significant acceleration in the next few years, driven by the continued growth in demand for small, high-capacity, high-value-added MLCCs from AI servers and data centers. The report predicts that global MLCC shipments will reach US$44.45 billion by 2031, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to reach 20.3% from 2025 to 2031; of these, AI servers and data centers will become one of the most important sources of incremental demand.

Among the major manufacturers, Morgan Stanley believes that Murata Manufacturing (Murata Manufacturing) and Samsung Electric (SEMCO), the world's MLCC leaders, are expected to be the main beneficiaries of this trend and continue to give the two companies an “increase” rating; Yageo Electronics (Yageo) also maintains an “increase” rating, while Taiyo Yuden (Taiyo Yuden) has upgraded from “reduced holdings” to “holdings.”

AI investment opportunities spread from GPUs to MLCCs to high-end markets, forming an oligopoly pattern between Japan and South Korea

Morgan Stanley believes the MLCC industry is undergoing an important shift in investment logic.

In the past, the market focus of AI infrastructure investment was mainly on core semiconductors and computing hardware such as GPUs, CPUs, HBM, and network equipment, but as AI chip performance, server power consumption, and rack density continue to increase, requirements for power supply stability also rise rapidly, and high-end MLCCs are becoming more and more critical basic electronic components.

MLCC can be understood as a miniature “energy storage reservoir” in an electronic circuit. GPUs, CPUs, and FPGAs switch repeatedly at nanosecond speeds, requiring instantaneous acquisition of large amounts of current, and MLCC can quickly release stored charges while filtering noise and stabilizing the supply voltage near the chip.

As the semiconductor process continues to shrink, the operating speed of the chip increases and the operating voltage drops, even very slight voltage fluctuations may affect the operation of the chip. Therefore, the higher the computing power and power consumption of AI servers, the stronger the demand for small, high-capacity MLCCs.

More importantly, high-end AI MLCCs have high technical barriers.

Morgan Stanley points out that high-capacity, low-ESL MLCCs for AI accelerators require stacking hundreds or even more than 1,000 layers of dielectric layers, while keeping the defect rate at a very low level and passing strict customer certification.

This makes the current high-end AI MLCC market present a highly concentrated competitive pattern. Together, Murata and Samsung Electric account for about 85% of the high-end AI MLCC market, forming a de facto oligopoly pattern between Japan and South Korea. Due to high entry barriers, Morgan Stanley believes that there is a difference between this round of tight supply and demand and the traditional MLCC shortage cycle from 2017 to 2018. After tight supply attracted new vendors, the market eventually quickly rebalanced supply and demand; however, the expansion and certification of high-end AI products this time is clearly more difficult.

At the same time, AI platforms are competing with smartphones, automobiles, and industrial equipment for advanced MLCC production capacity and raw materials. Supply risks are gradually shifting from short-term shortages to long-term supply security issues, and the number of long-term supply agreements between suppliers and customers is also beginning to increase.

The global MLCC market has entered a period of acceleration and may reach US$44.45 billion in 2031

Morgan Stanley expects AI to significantly change the MLCC industry's relatively slow growth trajectory in the past.

The report shows that after experiencing continuous contraction in 2022 and 2023, the global MLCC market resumed growth in 2024, with shipments reaching US$14.67 billion in 2025, an increase of 10.3% over the previous year.

As demand for AI servers and data centers accelerates, the bank expects the future growth rate to increase significantly. Global MLCC shipments will reach US$44.45 billion in 2031, and the compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2031 will reach 20.3%.

Among them, the AI server and data center MLCC market is growing at an even more astonishing rate. Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2031, MLCC shipments using AI servers and data centers alone will reach US$23.33 billion, more than double the previous forecast of US$10.8 billion, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 57.1%, compared with the previous forecast of 38.1%.

In other words, if this forecast is fulfilled, AI servers and data centers will contribute a significant portion of the global MLCC market demand by 2031, and the MLCC industry's growth logic will increasingly shift from the traditional consumer electronics cycle to the AI infrastructure investment cycle.

The Nvidia Rubin platform brought about a jump in demand, and the value of single-frame MLCCs may skyrocket by 166%

Morgan Stanley specifically emphasized that the Nvidia (NVDA.US) next-generation AI platform upgrade is significantly increasing the number and value of MLCCs required per server rack.

The report predicts that compared with the GB300 NVL72, the MLCC demand for the VR200 NVL72 rack will increase by about 80%. Among them, each GB300 NVL72 rack requires about 320,000 MLCCs, while the number required for the VR200 NVL72 will jump to about 570,000.

The increase in quantity is only one part; more importantly, product specification upgrades.

According to estimates, the MLCC value of each GB300 NVL72 rack is about 4664 US dollars, while the VR 200 will reach about 124.11 million US dollars, which is equivalent to an increase of about 166%. Among them, the MLCC value on the calculated PCB is expected to rise from 3,527 US dollars to 9,239 US dollars, while the exchange board is expected to rise from 515 US dollars to 1997 dollars.

This means that the AI server upgrade not only increases the number of MLCCs used, but also drives the migration of the product portfolio to higher capacity and higher unit price products, so the increase in revenue received by MLCC manufacturers may be significantly higher than a simple increase in volume.

Morgan Stanley predicts that the proportion of high-capacity MLCCs above 47 μF in the VR200 will increase from 18% of GB300 to 31%. At the same time, the unit price of some smaller, higher capacity MLCCs may reach 5 to 10 times that of traditional specification products.

The market segment of high-capacity MLCCs above 47 μF alone could present significant new opportunities. Morgan Stanley predicts that such products may contribute 50%-60% of the new potential market size of cloud AI MLCC in 2027, corresponding to an additional market opportunity of about $2 billion.

In terms of quantity, the demand for MLCCs above 47 μF in cloud AI is likely to soar from about 4 billion in 2025 to more than 40 billion in 2027, increasing more than tenfold in two years. This increase in demand could force major suppliers to reallocate capacity or even expand production on a large scale.

AI high-end MLCC supply and demand are tightening, and the industry's pricing environment may face a turning point

While demand is rapidly expanding, the supply side is not easily able to keep up.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that the high-capacity MLCC market is still mainly concentrated in the hands of a few Japanese and Korean manufacturers, including Murata, Taiyo Yuden, and Samsung Electric. As demand for AI infrastructure accelerates further, the capacity utilization rate of these products may tighten, and may even crowd out MLCC production capacity required by other terminal markets such as automobiles, consumer electronics, and industrial equipment.

The report also suggests that the MLCC industry's pricing environment may be undergoing a turning point.

Murata management recently stated that the production load for high-end products continues to rise, making it increasingly difficult for the company to fully meet the demand for low-end products. Although Murata still insists on not simply adjusting prices based on short-term supply and demand conditions, Morgan Stanley believes that the company is focusing more on high-end fields where it has a competitive advantage and adopting pricing methods that can more fully cover large-scale capital expenses.

Notably, Murata is relatively cautious about signing long-term fixed supply agreements for AI and high-value-added MLCCs for data centers. Morgan Stanley believes this may mean that the company does not want to lock in the price now, as there is still a possibility that MLCC prices will rise further in the future.

This is also an important reason why Morgan Stanley believes that the MLCC growth value in this round may be higher than traditional cyclical growth. As the product structure shifts to high-margin AI products, manufacturers receive not only an increase in shipment volume, but also an increase in average sales price and profitability, so it is expected to form more continuous profit growth and support higher valuations.

Murata and Samsung Electric may be the biggest beneficiaries

Judging from the competitive landscape, Morgan Stanley is most optimistic about Murata and Samsung Motors.

In the global MLCC market in 2025, Murata ranked first with a market share of 40.8%, and Samsung Electric ranked second with 22.5%; Taiyo Yuden, TDK, and Guige Electronics had shares of 11.3%, 6.9%, and 5.4%, respectively.

Morgan Stanley believes that manufacturers that can supply small, high-capacity MLCCs on a stable and large scale will reap the greatest benefits, so Murata and Samsung Electric are in the best position to increase demand for AI servers and data centers.

MLCC itself is also an important business for these manufacturers. In 2025, MLCC will account for about 50% of Murata's sales, 46% of Samsung Electric's, 19% of Guoguo Electronics, and 70% of Taiyo Electric.

Among them, Murata expects AI/data center MLCC sales to increase 100%-105% year-on-year in the fiscal year ending March 2027, and the share of the company's MLCC sales will increase from 10%-15% to 20%-25%. Morgan Stanley's own forecast is more optimistic. Murata's sales for this business may increase by about 120% during the same period, and increase by about 100% in the next fiscal year.

As a result, Morgan Stanley continues to list Murata as the preferred stock in the Japanese electronic components industry and maintains an “overweight” rating.

Stock prices have fallen sharply from a high level. Morgan Stanley believes the conditions for rearrangement are being formed

It is worth noting that MLCC concept stocks have experienced a sharp rise before this year.

As of September 11, Murata, Samsung Electric, Guoju Electronics, and Taiyo Yuden had cumulative increases of about 127%, 449%, 141%, and 160% during the year, respectively. However, based on their respective highs from June to July, the four companies then fell by about 40%, 38%, 52%, and 59%, respectively.

Morgan Stanley believes that considering that demand for high-value-added MLCCs for AI servers and data centers will not only continue to grow in 2026, but is also expected to continue to expand after 2027. At the same time, profits from major manufacturers are expected to continue to rise, and recent significant adjustments from high levels have made some stocks worth paying attention to.

Specifically, the bank maintained the “gain” ratings of Murata, Samsung Electric, and Guige Electronics, and raised Taiyo Electric from “reduced holdings” to “hold.”

Based on the closing price on September 11, Morgan Stanley gave Murata a target price of 11,000 yen, which is about 50% space compared to the 7352 yen stock price; Samsung Electric's target price is 2.62 million won, which is about 87% compared to 1.4 million won; Guoguo Electronics's target price of 1,050 yuan, which is about 93% compared to 544 yuan; and Taiyo Yuden's target price is 10,500 yen, corresponding to about 14%.

However, Morgan Stanley lowered Murata's target price from 12,500 yen to 11,000 yen, mainly because the risk-free interest rate used in its DCF valuation model was raised from 2.6% to 3.0%; Taiyo Yuden's target price was also lowered from 12,500 yen to 10,500 yen. The bank believes that compared with Murata and Samsung Electric, it may take longer for Taiyo Yuden to reap significant benefits from increased demand for AI servers and MLCCs in data centers.

Overall, Morgan Stanley believes MLCC is becoming another important link in the upstream spread of the AI capital expenditure wave after GPUs, storage, networks, and power infrastructure. Its investment logic is no longer just a cyclical rebound brought about by the recovery of traditional consumer electronics, but rather structural growth driven by increased power consumption of AI servers, increased number of MLCCs in a single rack, product upgrades to high-capacity specifications, and the concentration of high-end supply patterns.

As Nvidia's next-generation platform further increases MLCC usage and single frame value, Morgan Stanley expects demand for high-end MLCCs to continue to expand rapidly from 2027. For leading manufacturers that can produce small-scale, high-capacity, and high-reliability products on a large scale, AI infrastructure investment may not only lead to an increase in shipment volume, but may also further amplify profit flexibility through product structure upgrades and average sales price increases. As a result, Murata and Samsung Electric are regarded by the bank as the most direct beneficiaries of this MLCC growth cycle.