Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Two Assumptions at the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting, Technology Stocks Rebound as Scheduled, Optical Modules Lead

[Anatomy Dashboard]

On the eve of the boot landing, the market was less tense. After yesterday's A-share market volume, there was a rebound. Hong Kong stocks were relatively stable today, with a slight increase of 0.19% at the close.

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision in the early hours of Thursday morning Beijing time. Normally speaking, when inflation increases, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to suppress it. This is a routine operation. The market generally expects to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. However, if interest rates were to be raised, this would run counter to Trump's appeal to lower borrowing costs. Seen from this perspective, the head of the US Federal Reserve, Kevin Walsh, who was personally selected by Trump, is facing a major test. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Tuesday that no matter what decision the Federal Reserve makes on interest rates, he and the President will respect Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh.

Here's a prediction. There are two situations. One is that interest rates are raised normally by 25 basis points. Even so, the market already has full expectations, and in terms of guidance, they should go dovish, stressing that it is only temporary, and interest rates will be cut later once inflation falls; second, they will continue to stand still. This probability is small, but it's not impossible either. If interest rates are not raised, the stock market will rise quite a bit because it exceeds expectations. The first situation also occurs when the boots land. The worst was that the hawks raised interest rates, weakening again.

Jesse Colombo, an independent precious metals analyst and founder of BubbleBubble Report, predicts that gold is expected to continue to rise regardless of whether interest rates are raised or not. It predicts that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the price of gold may rebound slightly as continued uncertainty is removed. However, if the Federal Reserve ignores market expectations and votes to keep interest rates unchanged, then the price of gold may rise sharply and begin to hit the $5,000 mark. Today's gold trend is this kind of feedback. Lingbao Gold (03330), Chifeng Gold (06693), and World Gold Group (03939) rose more than 7%.

Technology stocks, which have fallen quite a bit, finally rebounded yesterday with the support of Trump and Wong In-hoon. According to reports, Anthropic has signed the first data center lease agreement in Australia. The lease agreement involves a data center park with a total planned capacity of 2.16 gigawatts, which is comparable to some of the largest data centers currently in operation in the world. According to Anthropic's announcement and contract details, it has signed a computing power purchase commitment of up to 517 billion US dollars in the past 11 months and obtained at least 14.8 GW of additional computing power. I was screaming loudly to slow down, but my body was very honest.

On September 16, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Li Jiachao, announced the “First Five-Year Plan for the Economic and Social Development of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (2026-2030)”. It said that it promotes artificial intelligence as an important industry for the future development of Hong Kong, and empowers thousands of industries with artificial intelligence technology. The main focus of AI is chips. The wafer manufacturer Huahong Hongli (01347) and SMIC (00981) both increased by more than 5%; the packaged ASMPT (00522) rose by more than 4%; the number of days in AI chip design, Smartchip (09903) increased by more than 6%; and the high-end smart driving chip Aixin Yuanzhi (00600) increased by more than 10%.

The trend is stronger in optical communications. Goldman Sachs drastically raised the demand forecast for high-speed optical modules, and revised the 2027/2028 demand forecast for 800G and above optical modules by 39% and 36%, respectively, to 144 million and 171 million. Related Haiguang Xinzheng (01191) surged more than 16%, and Cambridge Technology (06166) surged more than 10%. PCB Group CNC (03200), which strengthened yesterday, rose more than 5%.

The terminal server sector also followed the rise. Lenovo Group (00992) CFO Zheng Xiaoming: The valuation is only one-seventh of Dell's. The future net interest rate is compared to Dell. If this is the benchmark, it is indeed undervalued; today it has risen more than 8%; Lenovo Holdings (03396) has risen more than 7%.

Recently, the products mentioned repeatedly have continued to strengthen, and Haiqing Zhiyuan (01392), which has been mentioned repeatedly. On September 15, the media reported that the Shenzhen Bureau of Industry and Information Technology announced that the 2026 model service agency plans to add a new inventory list. The company was successfully selected with the self-developed “Zhiyuan Origin Big Model”, which has government endorsement and guaranteed sales volume. Today, it has once again surged by more than 36%. The white pigeon online (02672) mentioned also surged more than 20% today. This line has indeed been revitalized by south-bound funding, and it is expected that it will continue to explore imported varieties again and again in the future.

On September 16, Aixin Yuanzhi (00600) announced that the self-developed car-grade ADAssoCM57 chip is equipped with Ambofu's next-generation smart front-view all-in-one computer. It has achieved large-scale mass production and delivery on models from leading domestic NEV companies to the EU market, meeting E-NCAP 2026 five-star safety standards. The M57 has received many domestic and foreign car companies and Tier 1 designated projects. The product covers scenarios such as intelligent front-view all-in-one machines and integrated mobile parking domain controllers. This is also an entry type, with a sharp increase of more than 10%.

Recently, the Ningde era (03750) has been very weak and has broken ground. The direct trigger is that many car companies are switching to batteries from second-tier battery manufacturers, such as Ideal Auto (02015): some models switch to Sunwoda (300207.SZ), and then switch to self-developed batteries; Xiaomi (01810): The new Pengcheng series no longer uses the Ningde era and uses self-developed Longjia batteries. The batteries are supplied by China Innovation Airlines (03931) and Sunwoda; Changan, Geely (00175), GAC (02238) and many other suppliers generally promote self-developed+ Battery strategies no longer rely solely on the Ningde era. China Innovation Airlines (03931) is equivalent to bringing in an increase. Today, it has increased by more than 6%.

The reason car companies are doing this is very simple. Now every car company is living a very difficult life. Looking at the trend, it's clear that the company has basically gone into a broken position, and none of them can beat it. However, the combined net profit of many automakers is not even as good as that of the Ningde Era, and car companies don't want to “work part-time for battery factories.” Cost pressure is the most realistic consideration. Batteries account for 30-40% of the total vehicle cost. Batteries of the same specification are generally 10% to 20% cheaper than Ningde. Bicycles can save 3,000-6,000 yuan. Second tier is willing to offer a more relaxed billing period and more flexible business conditions in order to grab orders.

Second, car companies want to take back their right to talk about batteries and stop being “assembly plants.” Past model: Car companies raised demand, and the Ningde Era provided complete battery packs. BMS, thermal management, and battery cell design were basically dominated by battery manufacturers, and car companies received “black box” products. Now, second-tier manufacturers can only supply batteries and leave the pack packaging and BMS calibration to the car companies themselves, so that car companies can master the full battery system capabilities; another point is the supply chain risk: they can't put eggs in one basket. Anyway, they were all forced by the environment. At a time when the whole car was very profitable, none of this was a problem, but right now, in order to survive, there are only various changes.

Looking back, the diversion of orders from Ningde is unavoidable. A decline in earnings is likely, and valuations will also change. The establishment of a new anchor requires the overall recovery of the industry, new developments in overseas markets, including energy storage, or the establishment of a leading edge at the technical level, such as solid state, which takes time.

[Section Focus]

On the 16th, Intel CEO Chen Liwu believes that memory shortages will continue to worsen, and power supply and cooling technology will become the two major problems the semiconductor industry must face next. Chen Liwu said that when it was mentioned at the beginning of last year that memory might be a major bottleneck, I'm afraid not many people actually realized this. As a result, the problem is real, and the situation is about to get worse. Production capacity was also very limited. Many projects were forced to be postponed because they couldn't get enough memory, and memory prices also increased five to seven times the original price. Ensuring the supply of memory is already particularly difficult for mid- to low-end phones and laptops.

Major Hong Kong stock products: Mega Easy Innovation (03986), Jiang Bolong (09976), Lanqi Technology (06809).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Huiju Technology (01729): Global production capacity layout Q2 orders reached a record high

The company's revenue for the first half of 2026 was HK$10.066 billion, +107.4% year over year; gross profit of HK$1.26 billion, +96.5% year over year; net profit to mother of HK$828 million, +163.9% year on year; gross profit margin of 12.6%, -0.6 pct year on year; net profit margin 8.2%, +1.7 pct year on year.

Comment: The company's performance in the first half of the year was outstanding. The sharp increase in revenue was mainly driven by three factors: 1) the acquisition and listing of De Jinchang, and the copper wire business contributed HK$2.89 billion in revenue (zero in the same period last year); 2) server business revenue +68% YoY; 3) MPO-led data center business revenue of +23% YoY in the wire components division.

The high profit side growth was driven by two factors: 1) the high growth in MPO and server businesses led to an increase in main profit. The dual-density MPO has been mass-produced and is suitable for 800G/1.6T and CPO; 2) the profit margin of the joint venture company Leoni Cable improved significantly, contributing HK$165 million in investment income, and a loss of HK$500,000 in the same period last year. In Q2 2026, the company's server business and data center wire component orders both hit record highs.

By business: 1) Wire component division: The boom in computing power construction of G customers has driven a sharp rise in MPO revenue and profit, which is a major contribution to performance growth. Revenue of HK$2.08 billion, +21% year over year, accounting for 21% of total revenue; operating profit of HK$510 million, +44% year over year, operating margin 24.6%, +4pct year on year. The increase in performance mainly comes from the Data Center Division, which is still the largest sector within the sector, accounting for 11.5% of total revenue and revenue of HK$1.16 billion, +23% over the same period last year. 2) Server sector: Domestic CSP capital expenditure boosts both volume and profit. Revenue of HK$4.31 billion was +68.3% YoY, accounting for 43%, and operating profit of HK$230 million. 3) Copper wire division: De Jinchang combined to increase contributions. Revenue of HK$2.89 billion, accounting for 29%, operating profit of HK$100 million, and operating margin of 3.4%, was mainly due to the acquisition completed by Dejinchang at the end of '25. The company continues to expand production at factories in China and Vietnam to accept incremental computing power orders; Leoni's merger led to an increase in automotive cable orders.

Global production capacity layout, breakthroughs in new overseas customers and accelerated expansion of production capacity. Huizhou, Vietnam, Mexico, and European bases, acquired Leoni Leoni to improve overseas production capacity for automotive cables; acquired Dejinchang to open up upstream copper wire. The company is deeply involved in new computing power product lines for North American customers, which are about to be launched, including ShuffleBox in the CPO field, 800V data center power lines, etc. Furthermore, the results of the integration of Leoni Auto's business exceeded expectations, and the company's Q2 orders reached a record high, driving a marked increase in server revenue and profit.