China Index Research Institute: Second-hand housing transactions are expected to maintain a certain level of activity in the new housing market in the next stage or continuing the restoration trend

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the China Index Research Institute published an article stating that when September entered the peak traditional marketing season, housing enterprises still maintained a certain market scale in core cities, compounded by the continuous release of early demand-side policy effects, and the overall market was stable. Looking ahead to the next stage, the new housing market may continue to bottom up, and high-quality projects in core cities will remain relatively well removed; second-hand housing transactions are expected to remain active, and prices will still be dominated by slight fluctuations; the overall land market continues the prudential pattern. Currently, the market is still in the phase of understanding and policy integration with the new policy. Some local rules and implementation measures have yet to be clarified, and the impact of the new deal still needs to be observed in line with local rules and market supply and demand structures.

Demand: In January-August, the sales area of newly built commercial housing across the country decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, and sales decreased by 13.0%

Sales area of new homes: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August 2026, the sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 499 million square meters, down 12.1% year on year, up 0.3 percentage points from January to July; residential sales area was 415 million square meters, down 13.0% year on year, up 0.3 percentage points from January to July.

New home sales: From January to August 2026, the national sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4.75 trillion yuan, down 13.0% year on year, 0.1 percentage points narrower than in January-July; of these, residential sales were 4.18 trillion yuan, down 13.1% year on year, and 0.1 percentage points narrower than January-July.

Figure: The cumulative sales area of newly built commercial housing across the country and the year-on-year growth rate of sales

Supply: Real estate development investment fell 19.9% year-on-year in January-August

Real estate development investment: From January to August, the country's real estate development investment amount was 4.80 trillion yuan, down 19.9% year on year, and the decline was 0.7 percentage points higher than in January-July; of these, investment in residential development was 3.70 trillion yuan, down 19.7% year on year.

Figure: The country's cumulative real estate and housing development investment and its year-on-year growth rate

Housing construction area: In January-August, the country's housing construction area was 5.608 billion square meters, down 12.8% from the previous year, and the decline was 0.1 percentage points higher than in January-July; of these, the residential construction area was 3,893 million square meters, down 13.2% year on year.

New housing construction area: In January-August, the country's new housing construction area was 299 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over January-July; of these, 218 million square meters of new residential construction area, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4%.

Housing completed area: In January-August, the country's completed housing area was 211 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over January-July; of these, the completed residential area was 148 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4%.

Figure: The country's cumulative new housing construction and construction area and its year-on-year growth rate

Inventory: The area to be sold continued to decline in August, down 1.1% year on year

Area of new homes for sale: At the end of August 2026, the area of commercial housing for sale was 753 million square meters, down 1.1% year on year, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and has been declining for 6 consecutive months. Of these, 548 million square meters have been sold for less than 3 years, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. The commercial residential area for sale was 401 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.

National commercial housing and residential sales area and cumulative year-on-year growth rate

Funding source: In January-August, housing enterprises received 5.09 trillion yuan in capital, a year-on-year decrease of 21.0%

Capital available for real estate development companies: In January-August, the amount of capital available to real estate development companies was 5.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.0%.

Domestic loans: From January to August, domestic loans were 688 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%, accounting for 13.5%.

Self-financing: In January-August, self-financing was 1.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.0%, accounting for 36.2%.

Deposit and advance payments: In January-August, deposits and advance payments were 1.60 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%, accounting for 31.5%.

Personal mortgage loans: In January-August, personal mortgage loans were 684.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4%, accounting for 13.5%.

Figure: Comparison of the year-on-year growth rate of capital available to housing enterprises and the year-on-year growth rate of various funding sources

August Real Estate Policy Updates

In terms of policy, on August 18, the State Council issued the “Decision of the State Council on Amending the 'Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Funds'” to further improve the housing provident fund system to better meet diverse housing needs. On the 28th, the Ministry of Housing and Construction, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the General Administration of Financial Supervision issued the “Notice on Improving the Commercial Housing Sales System”, proposing that all regions should improve pre-sale management of commercial housing, make it clear that all regions should vigorously and orderly implement existing commercial housing sales, and require all regions to simultaneously improve relevant supporting policies and measures, and strengthen policy coordination and coordination. On the same day, the Central Bank and the General Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued “Opinions on Reforming and Improving Real Estate Credit Management to Accelerate the Construction of a New Model of Real Estate Development”, which focuses on improving and optimizing the real estate credit system throughout the real estate development, construction, sales, and operation chain. The Securities Regulatory Commission issued “Opinions on Capital Market Support for Building a New Model of Real Estate Development” to optimize financing systems for housing enterprises' stocks, bonds, asset-backed securities, and real estate investment trusts. The above policy makes concerted efforts in areas such as housing sales, bank credit, and capital market financing to further improve the institutional system for the new model of real estate development.

At the local level, Beijing and Shanghai have successively implemented new property market policies, and Beijing has relaxed the purchase restriction policy. The social security/personal tax payment period for non-Beijing households purchasing commercial housing within the 5th Ring Road has been reduced from 2 years to 1 year. At the same time, provident fund loans can be loaned up to 3.4 million yuan after adding multiple rising conditions. Shanghai issued the “Shanghai Eight Rules”, which allow withdrawing from the Provident Fund to pay the down payment for existing housing; the down payment for the second commercial loan package outside the outer ring was reduced to 15%. Chengdu, Xi'an and other places have optimized their provident fund policies. Also, in August, Guangdong, Chongqing and other provinces and cities issued about 47.4 billion yuan of special bonds to collect and buy unused land stocks.