GF Securities: The technological wave and revaluation of brokerage firms linked to the three investments

The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that AI is driving the expansion of the supply of hard technology projects, compounding improvements in long-term capital entry and multiple exit channels, and the private equity industry has entered structural restoration; under the scenario where assets, capital, and exit are improving simultaneously, the industry is expected to enter a 3-5 year fund-raising and exit repair period, stock technology projects will gradually enter the exit window, and the alternative sub-direct investment business is expected to shift from a capital investment period to a value realization period. The bank suggests focusing on leading brokerage firms with leading comprehensive first-level business capabilities, as well as small and medium-sized brokerage firms with outstanding direct investment business and high profit flexibility.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

AI drives the expansion of the supply of hard technology projects, combined with improvements in long-term capital entry and diversified exit channels, and the private equity industry enters structural repair

The AI industry is developing at an accelerated pace, and differences between China and the US provide long-term development space for Chinese technology investment. According to the “2026 AIIndex Report”, US AI private investment in 2025 is about 23 times that of China, relying on the “big model+big computing power” to continue to expand capital investment; in the face of capital and advanced computing power constraints, China is paying more attention to making up shortcomings in underlying technology, optimizing computing power efficiency, and implementing industrial scenarios to promote the deep integration of AI with manufacturing, energy, medical and other industries. According to C&C research statistics, as the supply of AI-driven hard technology projects expands, China's total investment in IT, semiconductors and electronic equipment, biotechnology, and healthcare will account for more than 50% in 2025. In a scenario where assets, capital, and exit are improving simultaneously, the industry is expected to enter a 3-5 year fund-raising and exit repair period.

Capital is concentrated in state-owned assets and long-term capital, and PE brokerage firms with the ability to fund the entire fund-raising, management and withdrawal process are expected to benefit even more

The brokers' private equity subsidiary relies on the Group's credit to undertake government and industrial capital, and uses three investment resources to enhance project acquisition, pricing and exit capabilities. According to CICC statistics, as of June 30, 2026, the management scale of CICC Capital and CITIC Jinshi exceeded 623 billion yuan and 235 billion yuan respectively, forming a first-mover advantage for leading institutions. Management fees are expected to improve as actual fund payments and AUM grows; as project withdrawals increase, Carry will further cash out.

Stock technology projects are gradually entering the exit window, and alternative sub-direct investment businesses are expected to shift from a capital investment period to a value redemption period

The expansion of industries such as industrial intelligence, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing continues to increase the number of investable projects. Commercialization of enterprises and subsequent financing drive the value growth of stock projects, while exiting environmental improvements turn book value into realized income and cash repayment. Early layout projects enter the cashout window period, which is expected to form a cycle of “expansion of technology asset supply - enterprise growth and valuation improvement - listing, merger and acquisition or equity transfer exit - capital recovery and reinvestment”. Against the backdrop of rising technology asset boom and improved exit channels, alternatives with rich stock projects, strong capital strength, and leading industrial pricing and exit capabilities are expected to take the lead in unleashing profit elasticity.

Technology IPO supply and secondary market valuations jointly determine the revenue elasticity of sponsorship and follow-up investment

The Science and Technology Innovation Board's comprehensive follow-up investment and GEM specific situation follow-up investment mechanism makes alternative investment opportunities directly related to the number of IPO projects and the scale of fund-raising. The expansion of IPOs increased the number of follow-up projects and investment capital, while the improvement in technology asset risk appetite increased the valuation of positions held during the lockdown period. Together, the two amplified book returns. According to iFind statistics, from 2021 to June 2026, a total of 314 alternative investment projects were lifted by major brokerage firms, with a market value of about 29.231 billion yuan, which has formed a certain amount of stock holdings. As the reform of the Double Innovation Board deepens, the supply of technology companies is improved, and the ban on stock projects is lifted one after another, brokerage firms with rich reserves of sponsored projects and strong technology investment banking capabilities are expected to also benefit from the expansion of additional follow-up investment scale and the release of stock holdings value, and the follow-up investment business is expected to become an important source of elasticity for alternative sub-profit growth.

Investment advice

The first is to focus on leading brokerage firms with leading comprehensive first-level business capabilities: CITIC Securities AH, Cathay Pacific Haitong AH, and CICC H, which have both a private equity management foundation, technology investment banking project reserves, alternative investment capital strength, and diversified exit capabilities. The second is to focus on small and medium-sized brokerage firms with prominent direct investment businesses and high profit flexibility: Caitong Securities and Changjiang Securities.

Risk warning: Technology industry development and project commercialization fell short of expectations; actual government fund payments and private equity fund-raising fell short of expectations; exit channels such as IPOs and mergers and acquisitions fell short of expectations; technology asset valuations fluctuated greatly; project impairment and actual disposal benefits fell short of expectations; changes in industry regulatory policies.