Hedge funds increased their positions by 400 billion dollars, and Bitcoin faced a critical test in September

According to Woofun AI, before the September interest rate decision was implemented, the market had already shown significant preview signals. The latest macro data disclosed by the Federal Reserve shows that hedge funds in the US greatly expanded their total asset size in the second quarter. This trend lays the groundwork for Bitcoin's upcoming price test.

The sharp expansion on the asset side is a core variable. In the first quarter, the value of shorted securities held by these funds was $651 billion; in the second quarter, this figure soared to $799 billion, increasing by as much as $148 billion in a single quarter. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, leveraged capital is also being injected rapidly, directly driving the activity of the derivatives market.

Changes in leverage indicators further confirm the rise in risk appetite. Margin loans to US securities brokers and traders increased from $110 billion in the first quarter to $131 billion in the second quarter, a net increase of $21 billion. If Federal Reserve regulation leads to tightening of financing conditions, widening interest spreads on US Treasury bonds and futures prices, and increasing margin requirements, which in turn triggers a sell-off of risky assets, the probability that the Bitcoin price will be under pressure will rise significantly; conversely, if the financing situation is stable and there is no cross-asset class liquidation, the price impact is manageable.

Current data reflects more of an amplification of price fluctuations than a substantial Bitcoin sell-off. Market performance in the second quarter depended on the evolution of financing conditions. As long as there are no chain liquidations across asset classes, short-term fluctuations do not pose a systemic risk, and the market is awaiting final confirmation of a clear policy in September.