Bernstein said Brent crude could rise to $120 to $150 per barrel as Middle East oil shipments continue to fall below pre-war levels and the market is in a “chronic shortage of supply.” Analysts Neil Beveridge and Brian Ho said in a report released on September 14 that the previous forecast of $90 per barrel of Brent crude oil in 2026 “has been overturned by reality” and that the risk is biased towards rising prices. Currently, the combined oil transportation volume of the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Mander, and the Suez Canal is less than 7 million barrels per day; before the conflict, this figure was about 20 million barrels per day. In the US, strategic oil reserves may hit the legal limit of 255 million barrels by the end of September. Although there is a theoretical lower limit of 70 million barrels, which means 180 million barrels of reserves can continue to be released, “we are approaching the limit of the use of strategic reserves.”

Bernstein said Brent crude could rise to $120 to $150 per barrel as Middle East oil shipments continue to fall below pre-war levels and the market is in a “chronic shortage of supply.” Analysts Neil Beveridge and Brian Ho said in a report released on September 14 that the previous forecast of $90 per barrel of Brent crude oil in 2026 “has been overturned by reality” and that the risk is biased towards rising prices. Currently, the combined oil transportation volume of the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Mander, and the Suez Canal is less than 7 million barrels per day; before the conflict, this figure was about 20 million barrels per day. In the US, strategic oil reserves may hit the legal limit of 255 million barrels by the end of September. Although there is a theoretical lower limit of 70 million barrels, which means 180 million barrels of reserves can continue to be released, “we are approaching the limit of the use of strategic reserves.”