Bank of China International: Robot-assisted surgery has significant advantages, and domestic surgical robots are breaking through at an accelerated pace

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bank of China International released a research report saying that China's surgical robot market size is 22.45 billion yuan in 2026, and is expected to reach 70.85 billion yuan in 2030. The compound growth rate is 33.3%, and the domestic surgical robot market is expected to continue to grow rapidly. With breakthroughs in domestic surgical robotics technology and increased resonance with industrial policies, domestic surgical robots have entered a period of rapid development with commercialization. It is recommended to focus on leading platform-based companies with multi-track layout capabilities and continuous fulfillment in overseas markets.

Bank of China International's main views are as follows:

Robot-assisted surgery has significant advantages, and domestic surgical robots have great potential for development

With its advantages of accurate operation, stability and high reproducibility, surgical robots significantly enhance the clinical benefits of minimally invasive surgery, which is expected to drive a rapid increase in clinical penetration rate. According to the Frost & Sullivan report, the global surgical robot market is expected to grow from US$32.8 billion in 2026 to US$63.12 billion in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 17.8%. Domestic surgical robots are expected to unlock great potential for development in the process of import substitution and globalization with technological breakthroughs, policy support and huge clinical demand. China's surgical robot market size is 22.45 billion yuan in 2026, and is expected to reach 70.85 billion yuan in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 33.3%. The domestic surgical robot market is expected to continue to grow rapidly.

Endoscopy and orthopedic surgery robots are leading the way, and domestic market growth can be expected

Looking at market segments, the endoscopic and orthopedic circuit has developed quite mature with a wide range of clinical applications and a clear commercialization path. In terms of the endoscopic surgical robot market, the penetration rate of the Chinese endoscopic surgical robot market is significantly lower than that of the US market. In 2024, the penetration rate for domestic robot-assisted endoscopic surgery is only 0.7%, so there is plenty of room for improvement. Currently, the Leonardo da Vinci surgical system is the main product in the global endoscopic surgical robot market. By the end of 2024, it accounts for about 58.6% of the global installed capacity. As domestic endoscopic surgical robots are approved one after another, it is expected that import substitution will accelerate. The installed capacity of multihole endoscopic surgical robots in China increased from 134 in 2019 to 502 in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 30.2%, and the installed capacity of domestic robots increased rapidly. According to Insight Consulting data, the domestic orthopedic surgery robot market shows a differentiated competitive pattern: in the field of spine/trauma, the market is highly concentrated on leading companies. The total installed capacity of Tianzhihang, Medtronic, and Gemma Bangmei accounts for 98% of the total installed capacity. Among them, Tianzhihang occupies an absolute leading position with an installed share of about 87%; in the field of joint replacement, Stryker occupies a vast majority of the market share with its MAKO system. As domestic manufacturers continue to break through technology and more innovative products are approved for listing, it is expected to accelerate the import substitution process and increase the market share of domestic surgical robots.

Technological breakthroughs combined with policy resonance, domestic surgical robot companies accelerated breakthroughs

Technological breakthroughs are compounded by industrial policy resonance, and the surgical robot industry has entered a period of rapid development. Looking at the industrial chain, upstream core components (speed reducers, controllers, and sensors) have the highest technical barriers. Currently, there is still import dependency, and the future will focus on technological breakthroughs in core components; in the midstream component chain, with policy support, domestic brands such as minimally invasive robots, Tianzhihang, Weigao, and Jingfeng Medical have rapidly risen, and various endoscopic and orthopedic robots have been approved for marketing, and are gradually penetrating through; the downstream application scenarios are mainly medical institutions, gradually penetrating from the top three hospitals to the secondary and primary markets. At the policy level, the country has continued to increase industrial support since 2015. The new medical insurance project guidelines introduced in January 2026 address the core pain points of “how to charge” surgical robots, and simultaneously set up remote surgery charging programs, which are expected to accelerate the clinical penetration of robots in hospitals at all levels.

The main risks faced by ratings

Health insurance payment and fee policies fell short of expectations, the domestic substitution process fell short of expectations, commercialization and promotion of products fell short of expectations, and overseas expansion fell short of expectations.