CICC released a research report saying that the Brent oil price fluctuation center has continued to rise since the third quarter, and the quarterly center of 90 US dollars/barrel predicted in the bank's June mid-year outlook is being fulfilled. Recently, the geographical situation in the Middle East has once again escalated. Damage to Gulf oil exports has returned to more than 10 million b/day, Brent oil prices have exceeded 100 US dollars/barrel, and spot oil prices in the North Sea and Middle East are close to 120 US dollars/barrel. Global onshore oil reserves returned to the elimination channel in August/September, similar to the situation in April of this year. Considering that current oil inventory levels are lower than in the previous period, the bank suggests that short-term crude oil premiums are more flexible. Looking ahead to the year, the bank believes that oil prices may have a “bottom of supply” below and a “peak in demand” above. On the one hand, the progress of the resumption of Middle Eastern crude oil production since the third quarter has fallen short of expectations. The recent escalation of the geographical situation will cause the market to reassess the sustainability of Middle Eastern crude oil supply losses and support the rise in the “supply bottom” of oil prices. On the other hand, endogenous demand is still weak. The recovery in summer demand should not be extrapolated linearly; a “peak in demand” may appear after oil prices break 100. Combining the above, the bank raised the 4Q26 Brent oil price forecast to 85 US dollars/barrel to reflect a more continuous supply gap and lower inventory levels. In the refined oil market, short-term increases in oil prices and freight rates are impacting the gross profit of oil refining in Europe and Asia. In contrast, the cracking price gap of refined oil products such as gasoline is under high downward pressure. In contrast, the bank warned to focus on structural shortages and cracking price resilience in overseas diesel markets.

CICC released a research report saying that the Brent oil price fluctuation center has continued to rise since the third quarter, and the quarterly center of 90 US dollars/barrel predicted in the bank's June mid-year outlook is being fulfilled. Recently, the geographical situation in the Middle East has once again escalated. Damage to Gulf oil exports has returned to more than 10 million b/day, Brent oil prices have exceeded 100 US dollars/barrel, and spot oil prices in the North Sea and Middle East are close to 120 US dollars/barrel. Global onshore oil reserves returned to the elimination channel in August/September, similar to the situation in April of this year. Considering that current oil inventory levels are lower than in the previous period, the bank suggests that short-term crude oil premiums are more flexible. Looking ahead to the year, the bank believes that oil prices may have a “bottom of supply” below and a “peak in demand” above. On the one hand, the progress of the resumption of Middle Eastern crude oil production since the third quarter has fallen short of expectations. The recent escalation of the geographical situation will cause the market to reassess the sustainability of Middle Eastern crude oil supply losses and support the rise in the “supply bottom” of oil prices. On the other hand, endogenous demand is still weak. The recovery in summer demand should not be extrapolated linearly; a “peak in demand” may appear after oil prices break 100. Combining the above, the bank raised the 4Q26 Brent oil price forecast to 85 US dollars/barrel to reflect a more continuous supply gap and lower inventory levels. In the refined oil market, short-term increases in oil prices and freight rates are impacting the gross profit of oil refining in Europe and Asia. In contrast, the cracking price gap of refined oil products such as gasoline is under high downward pressure. In contrast, the bank warned to focus on structural shortages and cracking price resilience in overseas diesel markets.