According to CICC, the US CPI quarterly rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August; core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations. The month-on-month rebound in inflation was mainly due to rising energy prices, rising telecom prices, and continued inflationary pressure brought about by AI. CICC believes that this CPI report has already hit the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike threshold, so it is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the September 16 meeting. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve may lower the unemployment rate, raise the inflation forecast, and the bitmap may raise the 2027 and 2028 interest rate path, sending a signal that the austerity will continue for longer. A more hawkish risk situation is to raise interest rates again within the year or next year, and once realized, the market may reprice a cycle of interest rate hikes that last longer.

According to CICC, the US CPI quarterly rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August; core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations. The month-on-month rebound in inflation was mainly due to rising energy prices, rising telecom prices, and continued inflationary pressure brought about by AI. CICC believes that this CPI report has already hit the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike threshold, so it is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the September 16 meeting. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve may lower the unemployment rate, raise the inflation forecast, and the bitmap may raise the 2027 and 2028 interest rate path, sending a signal that the austerity will continue for longer. A more hawkish risk situation is to raise interest rates again within the year or next year, and once realized, the market may reprice a cycle of interest rate hikes that last longer.