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    Is Novo Nordisk (CPSE:NOVO B) Cheap On New Childhood Obesity Trial Data?

    Simply Wall St·09/11/2026 11:15:33
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    Novo Nordisk (CPSE:NOVO B) is back in focus after releasing first results from its STEP Young phase 3 trial of once-weekly semaglutide in children aged 6 to under 12 with obesity.

    Despite the clinical win, Novo Nordisk’s recent share price performance has been weak, with the stock down 6.8% over the past 30 days and 13.3% year to date on a share price return basis. Meanwhile, the 3 year total shareholder return has fallen 54.3%, suggesting sentiment has cooled even as new obesity data and China Wegovy milestones reshape the long term story.

    Look beyond Novo Nordisk and compare its recent weakness with a curated set of resilient healthcare and pharma names using our 99 resilient stocks with low risk scores

    Novo Nordisk now trades below both analyst targets and an internal fair value estimate, even after fresh obesity data. Is the discount a reflection of prudence about future earnings, or has caution swung too far?

    Most Popular Narrative: 66% Undervalued

    On the most followed narrative, Novo Nordisk’s fair value of DKK851 sits a long way above the last close at DKK286.3, which frames the current weakness very differently to recent price action.

    Over the next 5 years I calculate with:

    Revenue growth p.a.: 14% (currently at 12%) because of fab expansion

    Profit margin: 35% (same as current)

    Future P/E: 24 (currently at 18) because the 15 year average is 24

    Interest rate: 4.74% (same as current)

    Which leads to a fair value of DKK850. This means Novo trades at 52% below fair value (current value: DKK409, 11.04.25).

    Read the complete narrative.

    This framework produces the DKK851 figure for Novo Nordisk using a combination of projected revenue growth, stable profitability, and a future earnings multiple that reflects confidence in long term cash generation. The specific assumptions, and how they translate into that single fair value estimate, form the core of this narrative.

    Result: Fair value of DKK851 (undervalued relative to this estimate)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    Still, this storyline could be upended if price pressure in obesity care intensifies or if Novo Nordisk’s manufacturing expansion fails to keep pace with demand.

    Find out about the key risks to this Novo Nordisk narrative.

    Next Steps

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    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Novo Nordisk?

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.