According to J.P. Morgan Chase, mainland coal prices have risen 14% since the third quarter, and coal stocks have risen 16% to 22% during the same period. The market expects the coal price environment to be higher for longer. The bank believes that there is still an upward risk of short-term coal prices, mainly due to limited domestic supply and demand to replenish stocks, so it raised the 2026 thermal coal price forecast from 805 yuan to 830 yuan per ton. The bank raised the target price of China Shenhua A shares from 45 yuan to 47 yuan, and the target price of H shares from HK$44.5 to HK$46 to maintain a “neutral” rating; it also raised the target price of Yankuang Energy's A shares from 20 yuan to 22 yuan, and the target price of H shares remained unchanged at HK$12.5, which also maintained a “neutral” rating. The bank favors Yankuang Energy in the short term because of its high exposure to coking coal and its favorable contract portfolio. It believes that although the dividend ratio of 6% to 7% on coal stocks is attractive, the high dividend rate is not necessarily sustainable, and may be short-term due to supply restrictions.

According to J.P. Morgan Chase, mainland coal prices have risen 14% since the third quarter, and coal stocks have risen 16% to 22% during the same period. The market expects the coal price environment to be higher for longer. The bank believes that there is still an upward risk of short-term coal prices, mainly due to limited domestic supply and demand to replenish stocks, so it raised the 2026 thermal coal price forecast from 805 yuan to 830 yuan per ton. The bank raised the target price of China Shenhua A shares from 45 yuan to 47 yuan, and the target price of H shares from HK$44.5 to HK$46 to maintain a “neutral” rating; it also raised the target price of Yankuang Energy's A shares from 20 yuan to 22 yuan, and the target price of H shares remained unchanged at HK$12.5, which also maintained a “neutral” rating. The bank favors Yankuang Energy in the short term because of its high exposure to coking coal and its favorable contract portfolio. It believes that although the dividend ratio of 6% to 7% on coal stocks is attractive, the high dividend rate is not necessarily sustainable, and may be short-term due to supply restrictions.