According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will drop 2.5 million b/d in 2026 because the US-Iran negotiations are at an impasse in resolving the conflict, and global oil supply is expected to be 1.74 million b/d lower than demand in 2026. It is currently anticipated that the full recovery of oil supply to the Gulf oil producers will be delayed until 2027. In order to avoid further tightening of the oil market, the need to make progress in resolving the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict is more urgent than ever. Global oil supply is expected to average 100.7 million b/d in 2026, down 5.7 million b/d from 2025 and 1.3 million b/d lower than previously forecast.

According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will drop 2.5 million b/d in 2026 because the US-Iran negotiations are at an impasse in resolving the conflict, and global oil supply is expected to be 1.74 million b/d lower than demand in 2026. It is currently anticipated that the full recovery of oil supply to the Gulf oil producers will be delayed until 2027. In order to avoid further tightening of the oil market, the need to make progress in resolving the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict is more urgent than ever. Global oil supply is expected to average 100.7 million b/d in 2026, down 5.7 million b/d from 2025 and 1.3 million b/d lower than previously forecast.