Down 16%, could this $2 billion activist bet wake up Northern Star shares?

You would think record gold prices would be doing wonders for Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares.

Instead, the gold miner has gone backwards.

Northern Star finished Thursday down 1.40% at $22.54, leaving the share price around 16% lower in 2026 and well below its recent highs.

That's not really what investors would expect with gold trading at such strong levels.

But there could be a bit more going on here than just the gold price.

US activist investor Elliott Investment Management has been building its position in Northern Star, and it clearly sees room for improvement.

I think that makes the next few months worth watching closely.

Elliott wants to see some changes

The US activist investor has been pushing Northern Star to strengthen its board and take a look at how the business is run.

Last month, Elliott said:

During a period of record gold prices, a company with assets of this calibre should be among its sector's strongest performers.

It also argued that Northern Star's shareholder returns had lagged peers because of execution and governance failures.

Northern Star has pushed back. Outgoing chairman Michael Chaney said Elliott had made demands "to which no responsible board would agree".

With that said, the boardroom battle could become more interesting over the next 2 months.

Director nominations close on 16 September, while the annual general meeting (AGM) is scheduled for 18 November.

A new CEO is coming too

There's also a fair bit happening inside Northern Star itself.

Suresh Vadnagra is due to take over as chief executive on 5 October following Stuart Tonkin's departure last month.

That means the company will soon have a new CEO, a new chairman and a major activist investor demanding better results.

I think that puts plenty of pressure on the new leadership team to show investors what it can do differently.

And there is clearly room for the share price to recover.

Northern Star is still up around 8% over the past year, but the shares remain well below the levels they reached in March.

Could Northern Star shares recover?

Brokers aren't exactly on the same page when it comes to Northern Star.

TipRanks shows an average 12-month price target of $23.40, which is only around 4% above Thursday's closing price.

But a few analysts see a lot more upside.

UBS recently upgraded Northern Star to buy and lifted its price target to $29.40, while Jefferies has a $27 target and Morgans is at $25.

If UBS is right, Northern Star shares could climb around 30% from here.

Personally, I wouldn't buy the stock just because Elliott has built a huge position.

The new team will need to improve execution and get shareholders back onside before I'd take another look.

The post Down 16%, could this $2 billion activist bet wake up Northern Star shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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