CITIC Construction Investment: “Six Networks” is expected to have the triple role of steady growth, industrial upgrading, and long-term asset supply

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, “Six Networks” is expected to have the triple role of steady growth, industrial upgrading, and long-term asset supply. Under the benchmark scenario, the total investment of the “Liuzhang Network” of about 27.93 trillion yuan during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period is expected to drive about 149.93 trillion yuan of total industrial chain output value and 53.44 trillion yuan of GDP, accounting for about 6.2% to 6.8% of the total GDP during the same period. There are differences in the total contribution of each network, the spread of the industrial chain, and the ability to drive GDP. The current policy deployment has been clearly strengthened. Since 2026, the investment side of the six networks has taken the lead in restoration, but the structural differentiation is obvious, and the investment climate and physical workload have not yet formed a continuous resonance. The key to the future is the continuous transmission of capital, projects, and orders to physical construction. On the industrial side, traditional infrastructure is mainly based on engineering construction and inventory renewal, and new infrastructure highlights equipment expansion and technology upgrades; on the market side, policy pricing is clearly divided, and the computing power industry chain is the most flexible. Subsequent pricing policy expectations will shift to orders and performance verification.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

“Six Networks” investment has a strong impact on industrial chain diffusion and GDP. According to estimates, the total investment of the “Six Networks” during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period of about 27.93 trillion yuan is expected to drive about 149.93 trillion yuan of total industrial chain output value and 53.44 trillion yuan of GDP, accounting for about 6.2% to 6.8% of the total GDP during the same period. The total output value driving multipliers and GDP driving multipliers of the six networks industry chain during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period are 5.37 and 1.91, respectively. Looking at sub-networks, water grids, new power grids, and urban underground pipelines form the main basic market for steady growth. The computing power grid industry chain has the strongest diffusion capacity, the urban underground pipeline network unit has the highest capacity to drive GDP investment in GDP, and the logistics network has the highest GDP conversion rate. The comprehensive economy of the Six Networks in 2026 showed the characteristics of recovery in the first quarter and a decline in the second quarter. The investment climate and physical workload have not yet formed a continuous resonance, and are currently still in the early stages of transmission of policy deployment to project construction and physical demand.

At the industry and project level, the construction path and industrial gripper of the six networks showed clear differentiation. Traditional infrastructure is mainly based on major projects, inventory updates, and public service capacity improvements. New power grids, computing power grids, and next-generation communication networks are more driven by equipment expansion, technology iteration, and digital upgrades, while logistics networks are further extended by node construction to hubs, intermodal transportation, and operational efficiency improvements. Samples of key local projects show that water networks, logistics networks, and urban underground pipe networks are the current construction directions of key local government organizations.

At the level of capital and capital markets, Six Networks is forming a path extending from construction financing to mature asset allocation. Long-term capital should be involved in a hierarchical manner according to cash flow stability, principal credit, asset maturity, and exit mechanisms. As projects shift from construction to operation, more long-term infrastructure is expected to gradually transform from “financing projects” to “configurable assets.” In terms of the secondary market, “Six Networks” is not a general upward policy theme. Market flexibility is highly concentrated in the computing power industry chain. New power grids have a certain but unstable policy sensitivity, and communication network builders and traditional infrastructure industry indices are relatively stable. The difference in index elasticity reflects more the differences in the mapping and performance delivery paths of various networks, rather than differences in the degree of industry benefits; subsequent market pricing will gradually shift from policy expectations to order and profit verification.

Risk warning: (1) The scale of investment and implementation of policy funds in the “Six Networks” fell short of expectations. If financial resources, special bonds, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, policy finance, and capital expenditure of central enterprises fall short of expectations, the pace of construction of related projects may slow down. (2) Project commencement and physical workload fell short of expectations. Some major infrastructure projects have a long construction cycle and may be affected by factors such as approval, supporting capital, bidding, and construction progress, resulting in slower transmission of policies to orders and physical workload than expected. (3) There is uncertainty about new infrastructure requirements and technology iterations. Technology routes in fields such as computing power, communications, and new energy storage are iterating rapidly. If terminal demand, equipment utilization, or business model development falls short of expectations, it may affect related return on investment and industry sentiment.