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    How Investors Are Reacting To SoftBank (TSE:9434) Pacific HAPS Test Success

    Simply Wall St·09/10/2026 19:23:02
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    • SoftBank partnered with Sceye on the Service Test 1 mission, which successfully flew a stratospheric high altitude platform station from New Mexico to Japan in August 2026 and delivered mobile broadband and emergency communications directly to ordinary smartphones using SoftBank Corp.'s core network.
    • The test put a "cell tower in the sky" concept into real-world use, with one Sceye HAPS designed to cover roughly 500 terrestrial towers while processing data on board to cut latency versus traditional cloud setups.
    • Now the focus turns to how this HAPS breakthrough, and its potential to extend SoftBank's connectivity infrastructure, fits into the broader investment narrative.

    Scan beyond SoftBank to compare this stratospheric connectivity story with other telecom and infrastructure plays by reviewing the 39 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks shaping tomorrow's networks.

    SoftBank Investment Narrative Recap

    To own SoftBank, you need to believe the telecom and digital infrastructure engine in Japan can keep throwing off steady cash while new platforms in AI, fintech and data centers gradually take up more weight. The Sceye HAPS flight, if scaled, fits into that thesis as another way to stretch SoftBank’s network without building thousands of new towers. In the near term, the key swing factor still looks like execution on AI and cloud services versus rising network and labor costs, while the biggest risk remains pressure on margins in a fiercely competitive domestic mobile market.

    In the short term, nothing in this stratospheric trial changes the reality that pricing in Japanese wireless stays tight and capex-heavy projects like AI data centers and GPU infrastructure carry real payback uncertainty. The HAPS progress supports the narrative around SoftBank as a next generation infrastructure provider, but it does not remove concerns about high debt levels, exposure to volatile Media & E-commerce assets, or the challenge of growing ARPU when low-cost offers and rival carriers are pushing hard for share.

    The announcement that SoftBank joined the Cloud Native Computing Foundation as a Silver member connects directly to the HAPS and AI narrative. A telecom that wants to run mobile core functions, edge computing on platforms like Sceye, and GPU as a service for enterprises needs cloud native tooling that can scale. Participation in CNCF points to deeper use of containerized workloads and microservices across data centers and the wider network. That ties into the main catalyst around enterprise AI and cloud services, while keeping execution risk high if spending runs ahead of customer demand.

    Enterprise security moves such as the Abnormal AI email protection rollout in Japan also rely on the same cloud and AI stack. For you as a shareholder, the question is whether offerings like AI security, AI contact centers and PayPay-related fintech can grow fast enough to justify the current P/E premium to the wider Asian wireless sector. If these services gain traction, they may help offset saturated consumer mobile, yet they still demand sustained opex and capex in GPUs, software talent and new data center capacity.

    Yet the more interesting part of the SoftBank story right now is the risk that...

    Read the full SoftBank narrative to see the case behind these numbers.

    SoftBank's current analyst script points to revenue of ¥8,569.8b and earnings of ¥692.9b by 2029, based on a 6.0% yearly top line growth assumption and an increase in earnings of about ¥146.8b from ¥546.1b today.

    SoftBank's forecasts put fair value at ¥257 versus a ¥243 share price, indicating a 6% difference from its current price that could narrow quickly.

    TSE:9434 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSE:9434 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community cluster between ¥240 and about ¥256.9, so retail views already span a tight band around SoftBank’s current price. These opinions do not yet factor in HAPS progress, AI security rollouts, or cloud native expansion, so you are weighing fresh catalysts against ongoing cost and competition risks.

    If you want to see how other investors are framing SoftBank's value range, check out the 2 other fair value estimates for SoftBank.

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    Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond SoftBank?

    If the SoftBank story has sharpened your thinking and you want to test that framework on other opportunities, the Simply Wall St Screener can help you sort through the market using clear, fundamentals based filters instead of headlines.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.