US stock outlook | Futures on the three major stock indexes had mixed ups and downs, ECB interest rate decision, US August PPI announcement is imminent, Oracle (ORCL.US) will release financial reports after the market

Pre-market market trends

1. Before the US stock market on September 10 (Thursday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.10%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.09%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.58%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 0.05%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.38%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.08%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.24%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 2.40% to $98.36 per barrel. Brent crude rose 2.03% to $103.26 per barrel.

Market news

The rise in oil prices above $100 raised concerns about inflation, and the ECB raised interest rates in September. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year on Thursday to curb the sharp rise in energy-driven inflation caused by the war in Iran. Since the end of August, attacks by the US and Iran have broken a month-long period of relative calm. The US and Iran have attacked military, shipping, and energy assets, pushed oil prices once again above $100 per barrel, and once again raised concerns about the re-rise in energy-importing Eurozone prices. Economists expect the ECB to raise the policy interest rate from 2.25% to 2.50% and send a signal that if the inflation outlook does not improve, the policy will be tightened further.

White House advisers told Trump the war on Iran could continue until the end of his term. According to an American official, a senior White House adviser privately raised with Trump the possibility that the war on Iran might continue until the end of his term. According to the report, according to officials, during discussions in the Oval Office and the War Room, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio and others discussed related issues with the president, that is, Tehran may continue to resist US pressure under the blockade and other military strategies, which may cause the conflict to continue until after the inauguration of the next president in January 2029. However, Trump said he expects the war against Iran to end after the US midterm elections in November this year.

South Korea will announce more than 100 billion US dollars of energy investment in the US to support the construction of AI in the US. According to reports, the South Korean government is about to announce a large-scale energy investment project in the US to support artificial intelligence construction in the US. People familiar with the matter revealed that the potential value of the agreement is over 100 billion US dollars, and it is planned that South Korea will fund the construction of up to eight nuclear power plants and a natural gas project. Trump and Lee Jae-myung reached an agreement in October last year, and the US reduced most tariffs from 25% to 15%, including on the South Korean automobile industry. In exchange, South Korea promised to invest 350 billion US dollars in the US and buy an additional 100 billion US dollars in US energy. No projects have been implemented before, causing dissatisfaction among US officials, including Trump. Trump threatened to raise tariffs on South Korea again in January. Currently, the two sides are close to finalizing the two agreements, which may be announced as early as next week.

The White House's copper tariff plan has stalled. Two people familiar with the matter said that the White House has yet to make a decision on refined copper tariffs, and officials are weighing the potential benefits of rising copper prices that may drive up manufacturing costs and encourage domestic mining. A White House official said the administration has yet to make a final decision on tariffs and confirmed that the Commerce Department had submitted an update to Trump before the June 30 deadline set by the White House. “The government continues to evaluate all options to bring copper and other key manufacturing back to the US,” the official said. These remarks suggest that tariffs are not a foregone conclusion, although the market anticipates that the US may extend existing tariffs to refined copper.

As the Houthis seize the port of Muha, the risk of shipping in the Red Sea heats up. Two Yemeni officials said the Houthis, supported by Iran, occupied a strategic Red Sea port city on Thursday. This move may allow the armed group to further control this important international shipping route. According to a local official in Muha city and a senior provincial official, the Houthis launched a quick ground offensive to defeat the Saudi Arabian-backed coalition forces of the Yemeni government and seize the city of Muha and its port. According to information, Muha is less than 50 miles from the narrow Mander Strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea. Analysts say the Houthis previously attacked Red Sea vessels from Yemen's northernmost territory, and controlling Muha would allow the armed forces to gain a foothold closer to the Strait of Mande. This is a major victory for the Houthis and will have an impact on global trade and oil markets.

Concerns about the survival risks of AI escalated, and a US Senate subcommittee launched an investigation into OpenAI. According to reports, a Republican-led subcommittee responsible for disaster management in the US Senate is investigating OpenAI's handling of the July Hugging Face invasion. Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley wrote in a letter to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: “As you know, in the public sector, more and more AI experts are warning of the existential risks of AI.” He added: “Just this week, three Anthropic researchers publicly stated that the probability of AI killing all humans in the next ten years is over 10%.” Hawley wrote that the investigation was in response to the findings of an internal investigation recently released by OpenAI. The Hugging Face intrusion marks a turning point in AI history, prompting OpenAI to slow down the release of its own models and push the industry to alert on AI-driven cyber attacks.

Iran has suspended the levy of a 10% energy freight surcharge, and the pressure on strait shipping is expected to ease in stages. Iran announced a temporary suspension of the 10% freight surcharge on foreign ships entering and leaving the country's energy products. This measure is a tactical adjustment in the context of the tense maritime situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The channel is of great significance to the global energy supply chain. Geographic analyst Estefano Gomez believes that the suspension of charges represents a change in Iran's offshore shipping control strategy and is expected to ease short-term pressure on waterways, but it does not mean that the overall conflict in the region is being downgraded. The policy change may adjust market expectations, and investors will re-evaluate the possibility that Iran will resume levying this fee before the end of October.

Individual stock news

The weakest link in the AI boom in US stocks? Oracle (ORCL.US) will hand in the financial report tonight. Oracle will announce the first fiscal quarter results after the US stock market on Thursday. Among all of these giant companies in the US AI ecosystem, Oracle's financial position is the most vulnerable. According to FactSet estimates, Oracle's revenue for the first fiscal quarter is expected to reach about US$19.1 billion, an increase of more than 28% over the previous year; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be US$1.74, which is much higher than US$1.47 in the same period last year. The above predictions are generally within the guidelines previously given by the company. Oracle expects total quarterly revenue growth of 27% to 29%, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.72 to $1.76.

Macy's (M.US) Q2 revenue and profit all exceeded expectations, raising full-year results guidance. According to the latest results announced by Macy's on Thursday, adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were 63 cents, far exceeding expectations of 37 cents; net sales increased 1% to 4.87 billion US dollars, and same-store sales increased 2.7%, all exceeding expectations. Based on this, Messi raised its full-year results guidance and expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.15 to $2.35. Despite this, the company's stock price fell before the market.

TSM.US (TSM.US)'s revenue in August reached a record high of NT$514.8 billion, and the unprecedented pace of plant expansion still couldn't keep up with demand. From January to August 2026, TSMC's consolidated revenue was approximately NT$3,386.87 billion, an increase of 39.3% over the same period in 2025 of approximately RMB 2,432 trillion. In absolute terms, revenue for the first eight months increased by more than NT$950 billion over the same period last year, which is impressive. TSMC recently said that even though new plants are being built at an unprecedented speed, capacity expansion will not keep up with demand.

The Nvidia (NVDA.US) deal with Groq was investigated by the US Department of Justice or involved antitrust supervision. According to people familiar with the matter, the US Department of Justice is investigating whether Nvidia is trying to evade antitrust scrutiny to reach a deal signed with AI chip maker Groq last year. Groq described the deal at the time as a “non-exclusive license agreement” allowing Nvidia to use Groq's chips specifically tailored to run artificial intelligence tasks. As part of this arrangement, Groq CEO Jonathan Ross and Chief Operating Officer Sonny Madera joined Nvidia. Artificial intelligence companies have reached a number of similar deals, including obtaining technology licenses from other companies and hiring each other's core employees, but have not completed direct acquisitions.

Goldman Sachs: Apple (AAPL.O) can ship up to 35 million folding iPhones this year. Apple's first folding screen iPhone was officially unveiled. Goldman Sachs believes that its pricing strategy and product design have exceeded expectations, and is expected to open up the mass market and be a significant benefit to the supply chain. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for folding iPhone shipments: 14 million units will be shipped under the 2026 benchmark scenario and 35 million units will be shipped under an optimistic scenario.

J.P. Morgan Chase covered SK Hynix (SKHY.US) ADR for the first time: 20% off compared to its American counterpart, and the current valuation is very cheap. For the first time, J.P. Morgan Chase covered SK Hynix American Depositary Receipts (ADR), giving it an overrated rating, with a target price of $245. J.P. Morgan believes that SK Hynix ADR has a clear valuation discount compared to Micron. As ADR increases global investor access, liquidity, and information disclosure, this discount is expected to narrow. At the same time, the AI storage upward cycle may continue until 2028. HBM's leading position, long-term cooperation locks in production capacity, and shareholder returns are expected to jointly drive profit growth and valuation revaluation.

Starbucks (SBUX.US) plans to spend $1 billion to transform as many as 9,000 stores. According to reports, Dawn Clark, senior vice president of design and concept at Starbucks coffee stores, said that Starbucks is spending $1 billion to redesign as many as 9,000 stores. Clark said the new design was designed to create a sense of community belonging, and design changes included increasing the number of seats.

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:15 Beijing time: The ECB announces the interest rate decision.

20:30 Beijing time: The number of jobless claims in the US at the beginning of the week ending September 5, and the annual rate of PPI in the US for August.

20:45 Beijing time: ECB President Lagarde held a press conference on monetary policy.

22:00 Beijing time: Total annualized sales of existing homes in the US in August.

00:00 Beijing time the next day: Changes in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 4.

Performance Forecast

Friday morning: Oracle, Adobe (ADBE.US)

Friday pre-market: Kroger (KR.US)