Thinking of Buying the Anthropic IPO? More Than a Decade of Tech-Based IPO History May Change Your Mind.

Roughly three months ago, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), better known as SpaceX, rewrote Wall Street's record books. The $85.7 billion raised from its initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters' overallotment, nearly tripled the previous record-holder. Meanwhile, SpaceX priced its IPO at a staggering $1.77 trillion valuation.

Possibly as early as next month, Anthropic, the developer of the ultra-popular Claude large language model, could unseat SpaceX with a targeted debut valuation of around $2 trillion.

Retail investor demand for Anthropic shares will likely be off the charts. But if more than a decade of tech-driven IPO history serves as a guide, keeping your distance from the upcoming Anthropic IPO may be the smartest move.

Anthropic appears to be targeting a late October debut

The wheels for Anthropic's public debut were officially set in motion on June 1, which is the date Wall Street's hottest artificial intelligence (AI) start-up confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Although initial reports pegged the week after Labor Day as the expected filing of Anthropic's public prospectus (S-1 registration statement), sources now claim the S-1 is more likely to come out in late September, per Reuters. This would allow for an IPO roadshow to drum up institutional and retail investor interest in mid-October, ahead of a late-October debut.

ANTHROPIC REVENUE RUN RATE JUMPS 7X AHEAD OF IPO

July 2026: $65B+
May 2026: $47B
End of 2025: $9B

Anthropic also reported more than $11.5B in preliminary revenue for its latest completed quarter, up from $787M a year earlier, while posting positive adjusted operating income.… pic.twitter.com/FapzRRS3w7

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) August 17, 2026

The excitement surrounding Anthropic's coming IPO is palpable, especially given its otherworldly growth. After beginning the year with $9 billion in annual run rate sales, Anthropic is up to $65 billion in yearly run rate revenue as of July, according to Bloomberg News.

Furthermore, Anthropic isn't solely reliant on consumer subscriptions for its sales growth. The company's agentic coding tool, Claude Code, achieved $2.5 billion in annualized recurring revenue as of early May.

While this might sound like a can't-miss investment opportunity, history tells a different story.

Tech-driven IPOs have a checkered past

In the weeks leading up to SpaceX's public debut, Truist Financial (NYSE:TFC) published a data set that examined the performance of 30 of the most hyped, tech-driven IPOs over the last 14 years, dating back to the debut of Facebook (now Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META)) in May 2012.

Truist's calculations showed that 57% of the highly publicized tech IPOs were higher at the one-week, one-month, and three-month marks, while only 43% had gained at the six-month and one-year marks. That probably doesn't sound too bad... until you take a closer look at the maximum year-one drawdown for each of the 30 IPOs.

Moral of the story - do NOT chase hot IPOs

Year-1 average drawdown = 55%
Year-1 median drawdown = 54%

Table: Truist pic.twitter.com/xt864JD4Xh

— Puru Saxena (@saxena_puru) June 3, 2026

On average, the most anticipated tech-based IPOs endured maximum year-one drawdowns of 55%, with 11 of 30 losing between 64% and 90% from their year-one high. SpaceX has lost 54% from its all-time high, achieved just days after its debut, to its record intra-day low.

These eye-popping declines occur because retail investor buzz for IPOs is fleeting. While fast-track entry into the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000 could support Anthropic stock in a way similar to how SpaceX was initially buoyed, the company's outsize valuation would eventually come into focus and likely weigh on its shares.

History is clear that chasing Wall Street's hottest tech-driven IPOs rarely works out for retail investors.

Sean Williams has positions in Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Truist Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.