TrendForce: Global folding phone shipments are expected to be around 2020 million in 2026, and iPhone Duo accounts for nearly 25% of the market

The Zhitong Finance App learned that TrendForce estimates that global folding phone shipments in 2026 will be about 20.2 million, a slight increase of 0.5% over 2025. Excluding Apple's contribution, the total shipment volume of Android brands in 2026 was only about 15.2 million units, a decrease of more than 20% per year. Mainly due to a sharp rise in component costs, shipments of various brands remained flat or declined from the previous year. Under these circumstances, it is estimated that Samsung will ship about 7.1 million units, with a market share of 35.1%; Huawei will ship about 5 million units, with a market share of 24.8%.

Recently, Apple (AAPL.US) officially launched the first folding phone, the iPhone Duo, which uses a book-style folding design and is equipped with a 7.6-inch inner screen and a 5.4-inch outer screen. TrendForce estimates that the 2026 iPhone Duo will be shipped about 5 million units, which will help Apple gain about 24.8% market share in the folding phone market.

Folding technology enters overall structural competition, and brands may adjust their strategies

As folding equipment matures, technology competition has shifted to thinner, lighter, less creases, and long-term reliability. The improvement of creases also no longer depends on hinges or a single material, but is being developed in collaboration with ultra-thin flexible glass (UTG), optical transparent glue (OCA), OLED modules and support structures to control the stress distribution in the bending area by matching material modulus, thickness distribution and stacking position.

According to TrendForce Jibang Consulting, the iPhone Duo's internal screen uses an OLED display stacking architecture composed of ten layers of ultra-thin materials, with nano-texture surface treatment to reduce the visual visibility of reflections and creases. The whole machine uses a Grade 5 titanium frame and shaft cover. The unfolding thickness is about 5.2 mm, the folding thickness is about 11.3 mm, and the weight is about 254 g.

To control thickness and internal space, Apple is not equipped with a separate periscope telephoto lens. It only uses a 48MP main lens to provide twice the optical quality zoom, and uses a side Touch ID to replace Face ID, showing that folding phones still have trade-offs between thinness, camera, biometric module, and battery space.

The design of the iPhone Duo shows that Apple is not simply pursuing a larger folding screen, but is focusing on crease improvement, long-term reliability, internal and external screen consistency to achieve differentiation, and the thin integration of the display module with the whole machine. At the same time, iOS 27 enhances the split view dual app parallel, continuous display of internal and external screens, and operation at different opening and closing angles, further extending the folding form to the software and multitasking experience.

TrendForce Jibang Consulting believes that 2026 can be said to be the “year of restructuring” of the folding phone market. The new demand brought about by the iPhone Duo at this stage can mainly fill the market gap caused by the adjustment of existing brand shipments. From a medium- to long-term perspective, Apple's requirements for displays, UTG, hinges, and overall machine structures are expected to help supply chain technology mature and mass production scale expand. On the other hand, there is also an opportunity to push other brands to readjust their folding product strategies to accelerate the improvement of technical specifications and cost reduction.

In addition to the continued maturity of hardware technology, AI applications may also become an important factor driving the growth of demand for folding equipment in the next stage. As generative and multi-modal AI is gradually introduced into smartphones, the usage context extends from single app operations to real-time translation, content generation, image processing, file summarization, and cross-app collaboration. The folding phone has a larger display space when unfolded, and can simultaneously present AI-generated content, original data, and other applications, further amplifying the value of multitasking and human-computer interaction.

For Apple, iPhone Duo integrates Apple Intelligence and Siri AI to support natural language conversations, personal context understanding, and in-app operations. If a large folding screen can be deeply integrated with AI and multi-tasking interfaces, there will be an opportunity to transform from simple hardware differentiation to a new interface carrying AI applications. This also means that in the next stage of competition for folding phones, in addition to being thinner, lighter, and less creases, how to create an AI user experience different from traditional straight-plate phones will also be the key to whether the market can expand further.