Gas Supply Crunch Might Change The Case For Investing In Methanex Stock (TSX:MX)

• Methanex has announced the sale of substantially all its New Zealand natural gas contractual entitlements and plans to indefinitely idle its New Zealand methanol plants from 2027, after concluding that continued operations there are no longer sustainable.
• This decision removes an entire regional production hub from Methanex's network and sharpens the focus on how the OCI Global assets and other sites support future methanol supply and cost structure.
• The next area of focus is how idling Methanex's New Zealand facilities reshapes the broader investment narrative built around growing methanol demand.

Scan how Methanex's restructuring story compares with other producers facing feedstock and capacity shifts by reviewing the hand picked list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (7 results) in similar capital intensive industries.

Methanex Investment Narrative Recap

To own Methanex, you need to believe this is still a resilient global methanol platform that can reallocate capacity when feedstock dries up. The New Zealand shutdown removes volume and raises execution risk on gas contracting, but it also simplifies the footprint around regions where supply looks more secure. For the near term, the key swing factor remains how consistently Methanex can run its enlarged asset base after the OCI Global deal, especially in North America and Chile. The biggest risk is that gas availability issues in multiple regions compress utilization at the same time.

The OCI Global acquisition is the clearest recent milestone to weigh against the New Zealand news. Management closed that transaction in June 2025, adding a sizeable international methanol platform that helped lift second quarter 2026 revenue and deliver record North American output. That extra capacity matters now because it can offset some future New Zealand downtime if integration stays on track. The flip side is execution risk. If synergy capture stalls or gas contracts in places like Trinidad tighten further, the enlarged footprint could feel more like a cost burden than an operational advantage.

Even so, before viewing Methanex as a clean capacity reset story, there is a less obvious pressure point that...

Read the full Methanex narrative to see the case behind these numbers.

Methanex's narrative projects $4.1b revenue and $805.2 million earnings by 2029. This implies 3.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings swing of about $850 million, from a loss of $45.0 million today to the 2029 consensus figure.

Methanex's forecasts put fair value at CA$91.07 versus CA$86.04, representing a 6% upside to its current price that could narrow quickly.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three fair value views from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly CA$91 to almost CA$165 per share for Methanex, which is a wide gap for the same stock. Those opinions were formed before the New Zealand idling plan and OCI integration risks. Use that spread as a prompt to examine several contrasting takes.

If you want a quick sense of how other investors frame the upside and downside for Methanex, review the 2 other fair value estimates for Methanex.

Decide For Yourself

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so trust your own analysis and research.

• A great starting point for your Methanex research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• See our latest analysis for Methanex. The report includes a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual, the Snowflake, making it easy to evaluate Methanex's overall financial health at a glance.

Looking For More Methanex-Like Investment Ideas?

If Methanex has you thinking about balance sheets, earnings power, and where the next opportunity might sit, broaden your research with a quick scan of other companies that fit different risk and income profiles using the Simply Wall St Screener.

• For investors who want potential upside without paying up for quality, start with a curated group of underpriced businesses through the 12 high quality undervalued stocks.
• If steady income is a priority, focus on companies with robust cash returns by reviewing the 1 dividend fortresses that meet a higher yield bar.
• For a more defensive watchlist built around resilience, filter for stronger finances using the 1 resilient stocks with low risk scores to keep an eye on lower risk profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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