America's strategy to retaliate against an attack on an American warship by attacking Iranian oil tankers faces a key obstacle: Tehran probably believes that the value of blowing up a hole in an American destroyer is greater than losing an empty cargo ship. The US Central Command said that after Iran attacked US Navy ships twice with missiles, the US military has “destroyed” eight tankers in the past few days. Military analysts refer to this policy as part of a “punitive deterrent.” The Iranian ship that was attacked belongs to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful force independent of Iran's regular army. Kelly Grieco, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, said that although removing Iranian oil tankers from the shipping fleet would damage the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's economy, Tehran would consider hitting a US Navy ship worth several billion dollars a very attractive opportunity. She pointed out that the Trump administration's previous first round of sinking an oil tanker did not stop Iran from continuing to attack the US Navy thereafter. “If it hits the target successfully, it will send a message that the US Navy is not capable of acting without cost, and will give Tehran a victory that can be promoted both domestically and internationally,” Grieco said. “Losing the tanker will of course be a loss, but Tehran probably thinks it's worth the price.”

America's strategy to retaliate against an attack on an American warship by attacking Iranian oil tankers faces a key obstacle: Tehran probably believes that the value of blowing up a hole in an American destroyer is greater than losing an empty cargo ship. The US Central Command said that after Iran attacked US Navy ships twice with missiles, the US military has “destroyed” eight tankers in the past few days. Military analysts refer to this policy as part of a “punitive deterrent.” The Iranian ship that was attacked belongs to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful force independent of Iran's regular army. Kelly Grieco, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, said that although removing Iranian oil tankers from the shipping fleet would damage the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's economy, Tehran would consider hitting a US Navy ship worth several billion dollars a very attractive opportunity. She pointed out that the Trump administration's previous first round of sinking an oil tanker did not stop Iran from continuing to attack the US Navy thereafter. “If it hits the target successfully, it will send a message that the US Navy is not capable of acting without cost, and will give Tehran a victory that can be promoted both domestically and internationally,” Grieco said. “Losing the tanker will of course be a loss, but Tehran probably thinks it's worth the price.”