Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | In August, global gold ETFs attracted $18 billion Goldman Sachs expects the price of gold to rise to 4,900 US dollars by the end of 2026 (with concept stocks)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the World Gold Council released a report saying that the net inflow of global gold ETFs in August was 18 billion US dollars. The total asset management scale surged 16% to 615 billion US dollars compared to the previous month, and the holding volume increased 121 tons to 4,189 tons, a record high. Together, North America and Europe contribute about 90% of global capital inflows. Among them, Europe recorded the strongest monthly performance in history, while North America recorded the third-largest monthly inflow in history.

European gold ETFs attracted 7.9 billion US dollars in capital inflows in August. In addition to financial sustainability concerns shared by the North American market, European investors also continued to bear the pressure of high sovereign debt borrowing costs, and the role of gold as a portfolio diversification tool and replacement asset for sovereign bonds became more and more prominent.

The report points out that policy concerns raised by US intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, concerns about fiscal sustainability under continued pressure on the US treasury bond market, and the resurgence of the risk of depreciation of the US dollar are jointly driving investors to increase their gold allocations. At the same time, the price of gold broke through key technical levels, further strengthened market momentum and attracted more tactical and institutional capital to enter the market.

Long-term purchases by central banks have built a solid bottom for the price of gold. The net purchase of global central banks in the second quarter was 289 tons, a sharp increase of 62% over the previous year. The Central Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 22nd consecutive month. By the end of August, China's gold reserves had reached 76.73 million ounces, an increase of 650,000 ounces over the previous month. The monthly increase in holdings reached a new high level since October 2023. Under the global trend of “de-dollarization”, assets are distributed and dependency on US dollar assets is gradually reduced, or the main direction of future central bank asset allocation.

Goldman Sachs Research recently predicted that, driven by strong demand from central banks seeking diversification of foreign exchange reserves, the price of gold will rise to 4,900 US dollars per ounce by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs analysts also said that as investors use gold call options to hedge their portfolios to cope with possible major changes in government policy, market demand for gold call options is rising — which may amplify price fluctuations in both directions.

Qu Rui, senior deputy director of Dongfang Jincheng's research and development department, said that the current gold price trend depends on the August US inflation data and the September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. If the core CPI continues to fall, the probability that the Fed will “stand still” will rise significantly in September, and the price of gold is expected to break through the resistance of 4,600 US dollars/ounce. If the inflation data rebounds or remains flat month-on-month, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September will rise, and the price of gold may fall back to around 4,300 US dollars/ounce.

Looking ahead to the future market, the World Gold Council believes that US fiscal and debt issues are still an important support for gold. If government intervention in the bond market can ease financing pressure, the rise in gold may be temporarily suppressed; however, if the market believes that the intervention reflects increased fiscal pressure, factors such as falling real yields and weakening of the US dollar may further push up the price of gold. In the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan, gold may still benefit from investors' concerns about debt and fiscal sustainability.

Related concept stocks:

China Gold International (02099): In the first half of 2026, the company's sales revenue was about US$914 million, an increase of 57.52% over the previous year. Mine operating profit was about US$620 million, up 123.83% year on year; profit attributable to company owners was about US$507 million, up 153.31% year on year; profit per share was 127.99 US cents.

Chifeng Gold (06693): In the first half of 2026, the company obtained operating income of RMB 7.018 billion, an increase of 33.11%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was RMB 1,732 billion, up 56.5% year on year; and basic earnings per share were RMB 0.92 billion.

Zijin Mining (02899): In the first half of 2026, the company achieved operating income of 194.178 billion yuan, an increase of 15.78% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 39.17 billion yuan, an increase of 68.17% over the previous year.