US stock outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes are falling, oil is breaking through $100, and Bezent is about to announce the scale of US bond repurchases Apple's press conference is coming

Pre-market market trends

1. On September 9 (Wednesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.65%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.38%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.57%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 1.71%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 1.25%, the French CAC40 index fell 2.12%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 2.05%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 2.86% to $95.69 per barrel. Brent crude rose 3.02% to $100.88 per barrel.

Market news

Wall Street is concerned about the scale of Bessent's US bond repurchases. Analysts say it may reach the upper limit of 10 billion US dollars. US Treasury Secretary Bezent is about to announce the scale of long-term US bond repurchases. Analysts expect a single repurchase to be between 5 billion and 10 billion US dollars. Morgan Stanley says the upper limit is about 10 billion US dollars. If this level is reached, the net circulation volume for a period of 20 years or more may decrease by 55%. Barclays expects the Treasury to reserve room for adjustments. In the future, the market will focus on the size, frequency and long-term guidelines of repurchases. Among them, the 30-year swap spread may more directly reflect the market's judgment on changes in supply.

The Federal Reserve may change the pace of interest rate discussions, and many officials are open. At least one-third of the US Federal Reserve officials said they would consider reducing the frequency of meetings to set interest rates. Whether this idea will soon be adopted remains uncertain. The Federal Reserve's policy committee has yet to discuss any details. Some open-minded officials also said they would like to see further analysis of the potential trade-offs and consider whether this change is tied to other potential adjustments in the Federal Reserve's communication strategy. It's unclear whether officials will discuss Walsh's proposal in detail at a policy meeting scheduled for September 15-16. The question of high inflation and whether to raise interest rates for the first time in three years may dominate the upcoming conference.

The situation in the Middle East escalated, and Brent crude oil futures broke through $100. Brent crude oil futures rose above $100 per barrel on Wednesday, for the first time since July 24. The intensification of the Middle East conflict raised growing market concerns about regional oil supply. Oil prices have risen 25% since the beginning of last month, and market hopes for a permanent solution to the US-Iran conflict are fading. More and more investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and HSBC, have recently raised their crude oil price forecasts. According to data from Claudio Galimbetti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, in the week before the recovery of the US and Iran on August 30, the daily flow rate through the Strait of Hormuz was about 8 million to 9 million barrels, double the previous week, but recently it has dropped below 2 million barrels per day.

OpenAI cuts prices against open source and joins hands with Samsung to attack chips. According to reports, OpenAI is lowering product prices, competing with open source models, and exploring new performance-based pricing models to respond to companies' concerns about the return on AI investment. At the same time, the company is deepening cooperation with Samsung Electronics to jointly develop next-generation chips. Thanks to the rapid growth of the Korean market, ChatGPT enterprise users have surged about 27 times a year, and South Korea has become the largest paid subscription market outside the US.

Iraq, the second-largest oil producer in OPEC+, is seeking a significant increase in production quotas, targeting a benchmark of 6 million b/d. People familiar with the matter revealed that Iraq is seeking to drastically increase its oil production quota in the process of OPEC+ member states evaluating production capacity to determine the 2026 production cap. As the organization's second-largest oil producer, Iraq hopes to set a production capacity assessment benchmark of 6 million barrels per day, which is a significant increase from the current benchmark level. This request means that Iraq plans to further expand its share of production on top of existing production. Currently, the relevant discussions are still confidential. The Iraqi Ministry of Petroleum has yet to respond to the request for comment. The final decision is expected to be announced after OPEC+ has completed the full capacity assessment.

Isn't controlling oil enough? The Trump administration may set its sights on mineral resources such as gold in Venezuela. Three sources revealed that the Trump administration is seeking to expand America's access to Venezuelan mineral resources (including gold) to further control and influence the South American country's rich natural resources beyond oil; this move may open the door for US capital to enter the Venezuelan mining industry and ensure the supply of key minerals. The government is considering a number of measures, including the possibility of signing an executive order on key minerals (still being drafted), and has also met with several companies to understand their interest in investing or participating in the Venezuelan mining industry; the White House said the two countries are “benefiting from cooperation and investment from Western companies,” but an official said there is currently no need to issue an executive order.

Individual stock news

Apple (AAPL.US) Fall Press Conference Is Coming! The debut of the new CEO Turners drew attention to the folding screen phone iPhone Duo, which starts at $2,000. Apple will hold a new fall product launch with the theme “Surprise and Shine” (Surprise and Shine) on Wednesday EST (September 10 at 1 a.m. Beijing time). This will be Turners' first major public appearance as Apple's CEO (CEO). In addition to the core first folding screen phone, Apple is also expected to launch the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, the new Apple Watch, and upgraded AirPods at this press conference.

Big rise ahead of the market! Meta (META.US) launches Muse, a personal AI agent. On September 8, Meta officially released Muse, an all-weather personal AI assistant with a cloud-based virtual machine. It has 7×24 hour operation, nighttime reflection and active planning capabilities. In terms of business model, Meta provides 100 million tokens free of charge every week, and plans to use AI to help users complete business transactions and collect “small commissions” to achieve profits in the future. To ensure data security, Meta recruited Signal founders to create an absolutely confidential virtual machine architecture. As of press time, Meta's pre-market share surged 5% on Wednesday.

Details of Amazon (AMZN.US)'s first British pound bond were revealed: issued in four batches, with interest spreads of 70 to 110 basis points over a period of 3 to 19 years. Amazon launched its first pound-denominated bond offering on Wednesday, divided into four installments, with periods ranging from 3 to 19 years, continuing to raise funds for its artificial intelligence (AI) “arms race” through the global bond market. According to people familiar with the matter, the term of the bonds issued this time ranges from 3 to 19 years. The initial pricing discussion ranges for each term type are: the 3-year term is about 70 basis points higher than the yield on British Treasury bonds, about 90 basis points for the 6-year term, about 105 basis points for the 12-year term, and about 110 basis points for the 19-year term. The transaction is expected to be priced late Wednesday local time.

The 5 billion data center project between Google (GOOGL.US) and Blackstone (BX.US) is said to have been delayed. According to people familiar with the matter, the AI cloud project “Project Braid” in collaboration between Google and Blackstone has experienced delays in data center construction. The project is funded by Blackstone with an investment of 5 billion US dollars and plans to rent computing resources equipped with Google AI chips to customers in 2027. People familiar with the matter said that Google previously planned that AI data center developer Crusoe would be responsible for building a data center in Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA, but then cancelled the arrangement and took over the project to re-apply for relevant permits. Sources say Google has lost confidence in Crusoe's ability to deliver the project as planned. Additionally, another data center site was affected by a lack of required transformers. The head of Project Braid said the project is still in progress and plans to provide 500 megawatts of computing capacity next year.

Uber (UBER.US) is seeking to raise around 4.5 billion euros through its initial Eurobond offering. According to people familiar with the matter, Uber will issue fixed-rate bonds for periods ranging from 3 to 20 years. Due to strong investor subscription demand, the cumulative bid amount exceeded 21 billion euros, driving bond pricing to a sharp narrowing compared to the initial guide price — among them, the spread for the shortest term bonds narrowed to 45 basis points in the middle of the swap rate, and 170 basis points for the maximum term. The person familiar with the matter requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

The Trump administration provided a $1.9 billion loan to New Era Energy (NEE.US) to restart the Iowa nuclear power plant. The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that it will provide a $1.9 billion loan to New Era Energy to fund the restart of the Duane Arnold nuclear power plant in Iowa. The facility has been out of operation since it was damaged by storm Draco in 2020. After restarting, it will become the only nuclear power plant in Iowa, and is expected to meet the electricity needs of more than 500,000 households. Last year, Google and New Era Energy reached an agreement. Google will buy the electricity produced by the power plant to operate its artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. The loan marks critical federal funding for the project.

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:15 Beijing time: The US ADP employment week announced changes for the week ending August 22.

23:00 Beijing time: The US Treasury Department announced the maximum amount of 10-20 year US Treasury bonds it plans to repurchase.

00:00 Beijing time the next day: The EIA releases the monthly short-term energy outlook report.

The next day at 01:00 Beijing time: Apple held a new autumn product launch with the theme “Bright the new chapter, let's shine”. ECB President Lagarde delivered a speech at the Bundesbank's official dinner. The US 10-year treasury bond was auctioned on September 9.

04:30 Beijing time the next day: Changes in US API crude oil inventories for the week ending September 4.