Bullish ETF inflows in options, unresolved spot selling pressure, and BTC's breakout of 80,000 was blocked

According to Woofun AI, the price of Bitcoin hovered around $78,800, and many previous attempts to stabilize the $80,000 mark failed, and the market showed a marked divergence between optimistic expectations for derivatives and actual weakness in spot prices.

According to Glassnode data, the premium of call options compared to put options has risen in a reversal, indicating that traders are willing to pay higher costs for a potential rise. This attitude of shifting from defense to attack is quite different from before.

At the same time, the flow of institutional capital confirms this bullish trend. The US Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a net inflow of 681.2 million US dollars in the most recent statistical cycle, a significant expansion from the previous 247.8 million US dollars, providing the market with substantial financial support beyond simple option pricing.

However, this optimism did not translate into overwhelming buying power in the exchange spot market. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, although the cumulative spot volume difference improved from -84.9 million US dollars in the previous week to -29.6 million US dollars, it remained negative, which means that sellers are still dominating the flow of spot trading.

The more critical variable is the perpetual contract futures market. The trading volume difference is -176 million US dollars, and the cost of financing in the long direction continues to decline, reflecting the weakening willingness of leveraged investors to maintain bullish positions and are unwilling to pay additional premiums for long positions.

Currently, the confidence of different groups in the market about Bitcoin's future is clearly stratified: ETF investors are actively entering the market, options traders pay high premiums to reap profits, while spot sellers tend to be conservative. If the spot volume difference cannot be corrected, even with strong ETF inflows, derivatives traders will still face the risk of lack of support in the underlying market, making it difficult for Bitcoin to establish a stable position base above $80,000.