CITIC Construction Investment: Rubin restructures the value of a single cabinet to drive the release volume of liquid cooling links and the continuous rise in new ship prices to benefit shipping companies

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that Rubin is reconstructing the value of a single cabinet and focusing on the liquid-cooled beta market. In 2026, the liquid cooling industry ushered in concentrated volume. Domestic and foreign high-computing power servers simultaneously popularized full liquid cooling solutions, and orders for segmented core components continued to be released; future iterations of high-power AI chips will continue to consolidate the immediate demand for liquid cooling, and domestic manufacturers will continue to attack precision processing and long-term sealing processes to gradually make all core components of liquid cooling autonomous and controllable, profoundly benefiting from global computing power construction and expansion. In terms of industry judgment, supplier performance was low and high in 2026. In 2027, we entered a profit release stage driven by the annual conversion of Rubin orders, increased domestic production share, and product structure upgrades, and continued to be optimistic about the allocation value of the liquid cooling sector.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

Rubin restructured the value of a single cabinet and placed emphasis on the liquid cooling beta market.

First, on the technology and product side, Nvidia's Vera Rubin has been fully mass-produced, and the 100% liquid cooling architecture has driven industry transformation. The single-chip thermal design power consumption (TDP) has risen from 700W of the H100 to 2300W, the power density of a single cabinet has broken the limit of air cooling, and liquid cooling has been upgraded from optional configurations to mandatory solutions; domestic liquid cooling companies have gradually moved from peripheral cooling sources and OEM processes into the supply system of chip platforms, server ODM and overseas cloud vendors. Domestic replacement has advanced from manifolds and pipelines to highly reliable quick connectors and core BOM.

The second is delivery to the ground end. The Rubin platform unifies closed-loop liquid supply standards and puts forward high-precision requirements for sealing, temperature equalization, and leak prevention. Domestic manufacturers have obtained head certification with the advantages of cost and localization iteration. The core components of cold plates and quick connectors have been shipped in batches, breaking the monopoly pattern of foreign-funded components.

Third, on the industry trend side, the liquid cooling industry ushered in concentration in 2026. High-computing power servers at home and abroad simultaneously popularized full liquid cooling solutions, and orders for segmented core components continued to be released; future iterations of high-power AI chips will continue to consolidate the immediate demand for liquid cooling, and domestic manufacturers will continue to attack precision processing and long-term sealing processes to gradually achieve autonomous and controllable all core components of liquid cooling, profoundly benefiting from global computing power construction and expansion. In terms of industry judgment, supplier performance was low and high in 2026. In 2027, we entered a profit release stage driven by the annual conversion of Rubin orders, increased domestic production share, and product structure upgrades, and continued to be optimistic about the allocation value of the liquid cooling sector.

The shipping industry is in a ten-year upward boom cycle. The iterative renewal of stock capacity combined with stricter environmental protection policies supports the core logic of the industry. Affected by external events, the segmented ship market is divided, and the pace of rotation varies. Currently, high oil freight rates have spurred oil tankers to enter a wave of orders. Orders for new ships have continued to rise since November 2025, and tanker orders are expected to remain high throughout the year; looking ahead to the future market, bulk carrier orders may become the main line of the next phase of the boom. Judging from marginal data, in terms of new ships, the price index for new ships in August was 186.34, +0.04% year-on-year, and +0.46% month-on-month, rebounding for 5 consecutive months, fully confirming that the industry is a sellers' market with tight supply and demand, and is optimistic about the sector's subsequent market.

Humanoid robots: Continued catalysis at home and abroad, so it is recommended to focus on quality links. Yu Shu landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board to determine valuation anchors for humanoid robot body companies, which is expected to drive valuation reshaping by body manufacturers. On August 26, the 2nd World Humanoid Robot Games came to a successful conclusion in Beijing. Domestic chain manufacturers actively promote multi-dimensional capacity building such as “brain”, “cerebellum”, and “body”, and actively explore applications in multiple industrial and commercial scenarios, and the scale of shipments continues to expand; as the level of generalization of robots increases, it is expected that their implementation scenarios will expand further. Physical AI is the next wave of artificial intelligence. Robots are one of the best physical carriers of AI, and the development trend of the industry is clear. Subsequent Optimus V3 release and mass production progress, new domestic robot product launches, robot companies' IPO promotion, and application implementation will continue to catalyze the sector market. It is recommended to focus on quality links.

AIDC power generation equipment: Global gas engine orders continue to be high, construction of AIDC gas power generation projects has increased year-on-year, and I am firmly optimistic that domestic combustion engines will go overseas. Global fuel engine orders in 2026Q2 were about 38 GW, a record high in a single quarter, and the US contributed nearly half; the capacity of gas power generation projects entering the construction phase in the first half of the year increased 76% to 52 GW, of which 16.9GW is planned to directly supply power to data centers; at the same time, the internal combustion engine development capacity of data center related projects (including announced, pre-construction, and construction stages) has more than doubled to 45 GW in the past six months, accounting for about a quarter of gas power generation projects supporting data centers.

In terms of parts, SpaceX plans to build its own combustion engine blade and guide blade casting capacity. The related production capacity is expected to shorten the operation time of the combustion engine by about 18 months, and hot-end components have become a key bottleneck in expanding production of the entire engine. CITIC Construction Investment's view: Global gas engine orders reached a record high in Q2, and the scale of gas power generation under construction in the US and the share of AIDC-related projects increased simultaneously. Delivery slots for heavy combustion engines are scarce, some customers need to shorten the production cycle through modular equipment, the gas internal combustion engine market is also growing rapidly, and the gap between supply and demand in the industry will continue. Domestic combustion engines are expected to gain overseas market share faster with shorter delivery cycles, higher cost performance, and continuously enhanced product competitiveness. Firmly optimistic about domestic combustion engines going overseas.

Construction machinery: Domestic and foreign sales of excavators continued to resonate upward in July, and the sector will experience quarterly improvements. In July 2026, sales of 19,521 excavators of various types were sold, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year. Among them: domestic sales volume was 7,608 units (including 41 electric excavators), up 4.13% year on year; exports were 1,1913 units (including 62 electric excavators), up 21.2% year on year. Overall, domestic and foreign sales have maintained positive growth. Among them, exports are still maintaining a high growth rate of more than 20%, and the growth rate of domestic sales has decelerated a lot. Structurally, the growth rate has declined slightly, and is affected by the relatively high domestic sales base in Q3 last year. Overall, it is still maintaining a good trend, and I am optimistic that domestic and foreign demand will continue to resonate and improve.

Domestic sales of excavators showed a clear backward trend in the peak season this year, because this year's Spring Festival is late compared to last year, and domestic excavators have recovered a high year-on-year positive growth since March, and it is expected to continue to grow in the future. Exports maintained strong performance, undisturbed by the international situation, changes in tariffs, interest rate hikes, etc., and China's construction machinery growth trend continued. The domestic landscape has improved, and leading companies have begun to raise prices. Companies such as Sany, Xugong, Liugong, and Shantui announced price increases for products such as excavators and cranes, reflecting the slowdown in the price war in the industry since the beginning of the year and the shift to healthy development in the industry.

Semiconductor equipment: The long-term prospectus was posted online this week. The global boom cycle continues to be confirmed, and attention is being paid to the overseas market process. The SEMI update forecasts that semiconductor equipment will continue to grow over the next 3 years. SEMI expects global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales to reach a record high of US$165.9 billion in 2026, +23.2% year over year. The growth momentum is expected to continue until 2028, and total equipment sales are expected to reach a record $229.5 billion, achieving five consecutive years of growth. TSMC raised its 26-year capital expenditure. TSMC expects capital expenditure of 60 billion to 64 billion US dollars for the full year of 2026. The previous estimate was 52 billion to 56 billion US dollars, an increase of 8 billion US dollars, or about 15%. ASML's overall performance comprehensively surpassed the market and the company's early guidance. The total quarterly net sales volume was 9.326 billion euros, +21% year over month, significantly exceeding the company's previous guidance of 84-9 billion euros and the market's consensus forecast of 8.85 billion euros. The annual performance target was raised for the second time in the year. The AI computing power+storage recovery both drove the boom in the industry, and the profit structure continued to be optimized.

Global semiconductor equipment components are experiencing a wave of price increases throughout the entire chain, which is rare in history. The pricing power in the semiconductor industry chain is shifting structurally from chip terminals to equipment and components. Parts companies are small in scale and account for a high proportion of fixed costs, and price increases directly translate into profits; at the same time, the production line expansion cycle lasts 12-18 months, and supply elasticity is the worst. Pay attention to domestic substitution demands and price increase logic brought about by extended delivery times from overseas suppliers such as valve pipelines, ceramic parts, RF power supplies, and GAS BOX.

Lithium battery equipment: The solid state mass production schedule has converged, and the equipment process has achieved an inflection point. First, on the policy side, fueling advantages and disadvantages and reshaping the cost order: On September 1, lithium-ion batteries ended the tax exemption cycle for more than 10 years, and consumption tax was introduced at a 2% tax rate. Solid state batteries, sodium ion batteries, and fuel cells are exempt from tax until the end of 2028, and tax exemption eligibility must be based on the premise that they meet national standards and obtain CMA test reports. For the first time, tax leverage is linked with the national standard system, which not only accelerates the clearance of low-end production capacity, but also sets a certification scale for the real and false technical route.

Second, on the industrial side, mass production nodes have converged: Yibin World Power Battery Conference closed and scheduled to be launched in 2027, Chery announced the launch of all-solid state certification in 2027, and the BYD Bishan 20GWh all-solid-state mass production line will commence construction in the third quarter. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has clarified the target routes for lithium-rich manganese-based, silicon-based anodes, and solid electrolytes. Leading battery customers have launched tenders and gradually issued orders for GWh-class mass production lines., the equipment process moved from R&D verification to small-scale delivery.

Third, on the trend side, engineering manufacturing has become the focus of competition: dry electrodes are seen as a necessary path for all-solid-state mass production; comprehensive energy consumption can be reduced by about 60% compared to the wet method. The value of iconic equipment such as isostatic pressure and dry rolling has increased. The industry consensus is shifting from parameter competition to equipment entry and yield climbing, and the large-scale layering path of low altitude and vehicle use in 2030 is clear. The triple catalytic resonance of policy, mass production, and equipment continues to be optimistic about the allocation value of lithium battery equipment and solid state battery sectors.

Risk warning:

(1) Risk of domestic macroeconomic fluctuations: Machinery is a typical midstream capital goods industry. It is closely related to macroeconomic fluctuations. If there is a major shift in domestic macroeconomic policies, it will inevitably affect the overall demand of the machinery industry.

(2) Risk of fluctuations in overseas markets: It is impossible for Chinese companies to go overseas smoothly. The future journey is bound to have all kinds of frictions. Whether it is a phased episode or a new trend is forming, careful judgment is needed.

(3) The risk that downstream production expansion falls short of expectations: If the downstream industry's expansion falls short of expectations, the corresponding demand for equipment will decline, which will adversely affect the orders, performance, etc. of companies in the industry.