GF Securities: Seize structural opportunities in shipping and focus on logistics restoration and aviation allocation values

The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that anti-domestic demand and domestic demand recovery are the two directions the bank suggests focusing on. (1) Anti-internal circulation: E-commerce express delivery, chemical logistics, including Jiayou International, are expected to benefit from the implementation of the overall anti-domestic roll policy. Both express delivery unit prices and resource prices are expected to bottom up and rebound, thereby improving the operations of related companies. (2) Domestic demand recovery: ① oil and dispersion: higher capacity utilization before peak season or higher confidence in high elasticity during peak season; ② aviation: medium- to long-term capacity supply constraints continue, passenger occupancy rate increases to form support, waiting for improved demand and slowing pressure on oil prices to unleash profit flexibility.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

shipping

2026H1 shipping sector differentiation intensified: overall shipping pressure but marginal improvement in Q2, COSCO Maritime Control's net profit Q1YoY -50%, Q2 yoy +29%, Jinjiang Shipping's revenue growth did not increase; high oil transportation boom, COSCO Haineng and China Merchants Nanyou H1 net profit YoY +42%; strong demand for comprehensible/special ships, and CMOSCO Shipping's H1 net profit YoY +228%; COSCO Hitec accelerated quarterly elastic bulk cargo; Significantly, Haitong Development's H1 net profit YoY was +503%. Extreme weather and geological disturbances all have opportunities for oil, dispersion, and transportation, and the sector has allocation value.

logistics

Although the performance of various segments of 26H1 Logistics is fragmented, the month-on-month repair trend is quite clear. The growth rate of business volume in the express delivery industry fell back to single digits, but e-commerce express delivery benefited from an upward shift in the pricing center, and Q2 performance generally accelerated. Cross-border logistics benefited from rising shipping freight rates due to geographical disturbances. Huamao Logistics and China Eastern Airlines Logistics's Q2 net profit was +17% and +13%, while Sinotrans withheld net profit +24%; Jiayou International benefited from the Mongolian coal boom and Q2 net profit +35% year-on-year. Foreign trade freight rates for chemical logistics remained high; the company's performance was divided under pressure from domestic demand in the bulk supply chain. Xiamen Xiangyu, Xiamen Guomao, and Zheshang Zhongtuo's Q2 net profit YoY was +4%/+69%/+348%. Looking ahead to the future market, combining fundamentals and valuation positions, it is recommended to focus on repair opportunities in chemical logistics, express delivery and cross-border logistics.

aviation

Demand in the 2026H1 industry grew faster than capacity investment. The six sample airlines ASK and RPK increased 2.50% and 4.76%, respectively, and the passenger occupancy rate increased 1.8 percentage points to 85.7%, driving a general increase in revenue for all airlines; however, the average factory price of aviation kerosene rose 38.4% year on year. Among them, Q2 rose about 90% year on year, cost pressure was concentrated, and the net profit of all Q2 airlines declined year on year. The appreciation of the RMB has relieved some of the financial pressure, but it is not enough to offset the drag on gross margins and profits caused by rising oil prices. Looking ahead to the future market, the tight global aircraft supply chain is constraining medium- to long-term capacity growth. The improvement in domestic demand still needs macro-catalysis, while international demand benefits from the expansion of visa-free policies and the increase in inbound and outbound passenger flow. Airport: As the share of international passenger flow increases and the utilization rate of airport production capacity increases, non-aviation revenue such as tax-free and taxable commerce is expected to gradually recover, releasing flexibility for first-tier airports' profit growth. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of additional production capacity and capital expenditure on costs and cash flow.

infrastructure

The second-line indicator is structural performance that exceeds expectations, waiting for bulk trade service nodes to bottom up. On the railway side, demand for railway travel remains steady. After the opening of the Xiongshang High Speed Rail, it may bring incremental passenger traffic to the Beijing-Fu-Anhui Company, but the drainage and diversion effects of the new channel on existing lines still need to be continuously observed. In terms of highways, first-line companies are in line with expectations. The restoration of Yuexiu's transportation infrastructure performance has begun; weak recovery in highway traffic flow has begun, and developed regions are more resilient under regional traffic differentiation.

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