Oriental Securities: The robot industry's mass production boom is on the rise, and the performance of local manufacturers is relatively better

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that in the first half of 2026, the humanoid robot industry chain showed an upward trend, industry revenue achieved rapid growth, and shipments from machine and parts manufacturers all accelerated. The bank sees that the expansion of application scenarios in the humanoid robot industry is showing marginal acceleration. The bank believes that intelligent manufacturers with active layout in vertical scenarios and machine manufacturers with stronger model generalization capabilities are expected to gain a greater competitive advantage.

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

The boom in the humanoid robot industry chain showed an upward trend in the first half of 2026, and industry revenue achieved rapid growth

The sample listed company in the humanoid robot industry selected by the bank achieved revenue of about 154.416 billion yuan in the 2026 half year, an increase of 18.3% over the previous year, and maintained rapid growth. From the perspective of gross margin, the bank saw a slight decline in the gross margin of the entire industry chain in the first half of 2026. Among them, the gross margin of main body manufacturers and sensor manufacturers increased significantly, and the gross margin decline of speed reducer manufacturers was the most obvious. The bank believes that to a certain extent, market competition in the reducer sector has intensified. From an inventory perspective, the inventory of 2026H1 robot-related companies all increased compared to the end of 2025. The bank believes that this shows an upward trend in mass production in the industry.

The capital expenditure growth rate of upstream parts manufacturers in the first half of 2026 showed divergence, and shipments all showed an acceleration

From the perspective of capital expenditure, the bank found that in the first half of 2026, the growth rate of capital expenditure in the upstream component sector of the whole machine was divided. Among them, the capital expenditure of speed reducer manufacturers and motor manufacturers grew faster, which may lead to an increase in the supply of production capacity in these two areas in the future. Benefiting from the acceleration of mass production of complete machines in the first half of the year, most robot parts manufacturers made positive progress in 26H1, and demand continued to rise. Looking ahead, the bank believes that as the mass production process of Tesla Optimus continues to advance, the popularity of related robot parts manufacturers is expected to improve again.

Industry application scenarios continue to expand, and machine shipments are growing at an accelerated pace, and the future can be expected

The bank sees that the expansion of application scenarios in the humanoid robot industry is showing marginal acceleration. The mass production process of 2026H1 humanoid robot manufacturers has accelerated markedly, and entertainment shows, science and education data collection are still the main application scenarios. Recently, however, the Sharpa robot officially went to work at the DQ store on Wujiang Road in Shanghai. After the consumer placed an order, the robot was able to flexibly complete actions such as opening the door, inserting ice, sprinkling, and mixing to make blizzard ice cream. The Shanxi Transformation and Comprehensive Reform Demonstration Zone, Beijing Hehao Ruisheng Technology Industry Development Co., Ltd. held a signing ceremony for the “Shanxi Real Intelligent Innovation Center and Industrial Energy Mine Special Robot Intelligent Manufacturing Project”. The bank believes that it is currently in the first year of large-scale mass production of humanoid robots, and breakthroughs in application scenarios are expected to drive an increase in machine shipments, so competition among robot manufacturers will gradually shift to understanding and awareness of various application scenarios. Manufacturers focusing on vertical scenarios can be expected to use industry know-how to gain a competitive advantage in market segments, while machine manufacturers with stronger model generalization capabilities are expected to accelerate shipment growth through application expansion across various scenarios.

Risk Alerts

Risk of model development being slower than expected, risk of unclear implementation of scenario requirements, risk of manufacturer production falling short of expectations, risk of national policy changes