Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a mixed open early Wednesday, with tech and benchmark futures edging higher even as Brent crude surges toward $100 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges and ahead of Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) annual product launch event.

The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning bullish for the Sept. 9 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 9?” contract currently reflects a 66% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing a cautious market rebound against severe Middle East energy disruptions and key corporate milestones:

• Mixed Index Futures: Equity futures indicate a quiet, slightly positive tilt following Tuesday’s post-Labor Day decline. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.10%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.22%. Conversely, Dow Jones futures slipped 0.02% and Russell 2000 futures fell 0.03%.

• Brent Crude Near $100 Amid Escalating War: Energy prices jumped after U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers on Tuesday following Iranian missile attacks on a U.S. Navy warship. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Tehran that Iran will continue to “lose tankers” if it targets U.S. vessels. Meanwhile, Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities in Abha, Najran, and Jazan injured 73 people, worsening supply fears. Consequently, Brent crude futures rose 1.23% to $99.12 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 1.05% to $94.01 a barrel.

• Apple Event & Earnings Docket: Investors are watching Apple Inc.’s fall launch event scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET, where the company is expected to unveil new iPhone 18 models. Wednesday’s earnings schedule includes reports from Chewy Inc. (NYSE:CHWY), AeroVironment Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV), and The Cooper Companies (NASDAQ:COO), among others.

Market Outlook & Economic Focus

Geopolitical tensions and rising 10-year Treasury yields—which have climbed back to around the 4.80% level—continue to pressure broader risk appetite. Following August’s unexpectedly strong Non-Farm Payrolls report, the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at next week’s policy meeting reached 60%.

According to David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh‘s Jackson Hole remarks underscored that the central bank’s primary mandate remains lowering inflation toward its 2% target.

Morrison highlighted that while the Fed prioritizes Core PCE, financial markets remain highly sensitive to consumer price trends, placing significant weight on Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI reports to shape interest rate expectations going into next week’s FOMC meeting.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Sept. 8 Polymarket contract resolved “Down,” recording $59,983 in total trading volume as seasonal post-holiday weakness took hold across major stock indexes.

On Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. The SPY was down 0.55% to $765.96, while the QQQ declined by 0.083% to $718.36. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), also ended 1.13% lower at $528.03.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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