China Index Research Institute: The overall premium rate of 300 cities fell in the first week after the New Deal, and first-tier cities contributed more than half of the concessions

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the China Index Research Institute published an article stating that the reform of the commercial housing sales system was implemented on August 28, and the local market performance after the New Deal became an important window for observing market impact and changes in housing companies' strategies. According to China Index data, in the first week after the implementation of the 8.28 New Deal (8.31-9.6), the planned construction area for residential land transactions in 300 cities was 6.65 million square meters, with land concessions of 45 billion yuan. The average premium rate was 5.3%. The premium rate was slightly lower than the weekly average since this year (8.9%). Looking at each tier, first-tier cities had concessions of 24.27 billion yuan, accounting for 54% of the total 300 cities, and around 10 billion yuan for second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier cities; in terms of premium rates, the average premium rate for first-tier cities was 7.3%, while second-tier and third-tier and fourth-tier cities were only around 3%.

Land plots in key cities are divided, and high-premium plots are concentrated in core sectors

Looking at key cities, the performance of the land market was divided in the first week after the New Deal. There are still premium residential land transactions in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou, and competition for some of these high-quality plots is still fierce. Overall, leading housing enterprises with strong financial strength have not stopped investing due to the New Deal, but the differentiation in land acquisition has further intensified. High-quality projects still need to compete, and ordinary projects are more likely to be affected by investment prudence.

Judging from the first week's transaction cases, the higher premium plots mainly showed the following characteristics.

First, low-density improved plots are still attractive. The Wenyu River plot in Houshayu, Shunyi, Beijing was contested by China Resources Land for 8.299 billion yuan. The premium rate was 17.37%, the floor area ratio was only 1.01, and the building height limit was 27 meters. The Sijing plot in the Songjiang district of Shanghai has a floor area ratio of 1.2 and a building height limit of 24 meters. Star Lion Investment and the International Trade Real Estate Consortium competed for 582 million yuan, with a premium rate of 16.41%.

The advantage of low-density plots is not only that it is easier to form a premium for improving products, but also because the number of building floors is relatively low, and the pace of project development is relatively easy to control, which is conducive to achieving corresponding pre-sale or current sales conditions more quickly, and reducing the uncertainty of long-term capital occupation. Of course, low-density projects often correspond to a higher total price of a single package and a narrower customer range, and still need to be supported by strong improvement needs and product removal capabilities.

Second, housing enterprises continue to cultivate in familiar areas, and the collaborative value of projects is even more prominent. The Beijing Houshayu plot contested by China Resources Land is close to its previously developed Beijing Runyuan project. Since the opening of Beijing Runyuan, a total of 353 units have been sold, and close to 90% have been removed. The sales performance of existing projects has provided a reference for product positioning and price judgment of the new plot. Zhonghai Real Estate acquired land in Xi'an's Qujiang New Area at a premium of 40.03%, continuing its long-term layout in Xi'an's core sector. Companies such as Yuexiu Real Estate and Ningbo Urban Construction continued to obtain projects in deep-growing regions such as Guangzhou and Ningbo, respectively.

For housing enterprises familiar with the local market and existing project layout, it is relatively easy to determine regional demand, customer structure, product positioning, and development costs. New projects can also take on the brand influence, customer resources and development experience of existing projects. Some projects have continuous development conditions, which helps improve overall development efficiency. Therefore, in a situation where funds are used more prudently, housing enterprises are still more willing to acquire high-quality land in familiar areas.

Third, projects with relatively manageable total price and volume are more in line with the current pace of investment. The total price of land in Songjiang in Shanghai is 582 million yuan, the total price of land in Qujiang in Xi'an is 804.5 million yuan, and the total transaction price of land in Yinzhou District of Ningbo is 1.06 billion yuan. Compared to large-scale, high-cost projects, this type of land takes up relatively little capital, and the pace of development and sales is easier to arrange. It is still a choice for some housing enterprises to supplement land storage and control investment risks.

Overall, the division of the land market deepened further in the first week of implementation of the New Deal. Housing companies' investment decisions focus more on individual projects. Location scarcity, product premium space, total project price, development cycle, regional collaboration ability, and elimination certainty all form the basis for housing companies' premium payment. Most of the high-premium plots are acquired by central state-owned enterprises with strong financial strength or housing enterprises with deep regional cultivation capabilities.

Typical plot conditions

1. Beijing Shunyi Houshayu Wenyu River plot: low density properties, verification of existing projects and continuous development support Huarun's premium land acquisition

On September 3, after 170+ rounds of bidding, China Resources Land won the Wenyu River plot in Houshayu Town, Shunyi District, Beijing for 8.299 billion yuan. The premium rate was 17.37%, and the floor price was about 40,600 yuan/square meter.

The plot has a planned construction area of about 204,000 square meters, a residential area ratio of only 1.01, and a construction height limit of 27 meters. It is a low-density improved residential land that has been scarce in Beijing in recent years. The low floor area ratio and construction limit provide space for the project to build low-density improvement products; at the same time, the project floor is relatively low and the scale of individual development is relatively small, which is beneficial for housing enterprises to control the pace of construction organization and development. Under the new regulations, it is also more conducive to the project reaching the corresponding pre-sale or current sale conditions more quickly.

China Resources's current land acquisition also has a strong foundation for regional collaboration. China Resources has previously continued to cultivate in the Houshayu sector, winning a plot close to its existing project, Beijing Runyuan. Since the opening of the project, a total of 353 units have been sold, and nearly 90% have been eliminated. The products cover flat villas and villas. The sales performance of existing projects provides a direct market reference for customer needs, product positioning, and price judgment of the new plot. At the same time, China Resources can use the brand influence, customer base and development experience of existing projects to enhance overall development efficiency through product portfolio and supporting collaboration between projects.

2. Land plot east of Daguan Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou: conditions were optimized after re-listing, and Yuexiu once again filled the core sector

On September 4, after 18 rounds of bidding, Yuexiu Real Estate won a plot east of Daguan Road in Tianhe District of Guangzhou for 2,481 billion yuan. The premium rate was 15.88%, and the floor price was about 36,600 yuan/square meter. The plot has a planned construction area of about 67,800 square meters and a floor area ratio of about 2.1. It is close to Daguan South Road Station of Metro Line 21, and has good traffic conditions and a foundation for improved product development.

The sale of the land was previously terminated in May 2025. After this re-listing, the starting price was reduced from about 2.3 billion yuan to 2.141 billion yuan. At the same time, construction requirements for middle schools, kindergartens and community health service centers were abolished, and the overall development conditions of the project were improved. The reduction in starting prices and the reduction in construction have to a certain extent relieved the pressure brought about by capital occupation and rising development costs after the New Deal.

At the same time, Yuexiu already has a deep layout in the area. The existing “Guanyue” series products have formed a certain level of customer recognition, and the plot can later form products and be accepted by customers with surrounding projects. For Yuexiu, deep regional cultivation can reduce the uncertainty of market judgment and project positioning. Having both brand and development experience can also help improve the certainty of project elimination.

3. QJ4-2-89 plot in Qujiang New Area, Xi'an: The core sector has not provided pure residential land for many years, and Zhonghai competed at a 40% premium

On September 2, the QJ4-2-89 plot in Qujiang New Area of Xi'an went through 24 rounds of bidding. Zhonghai Real Estate won 804.5 million yuan. The premium rate reached 40.03%, and the floor price was 1,5067 yuan/square meter. On the same day, a total of 7 parcels of land were sold in Xi'an. Only this plot was sold at a premium price. There were also 5 reserve price transactions and 1 cancelled. The popularity of the land was quite diverse.

The plot is located in the northern CCBD district of Qujiang. The west side is close to Xi'an's Wanxiang City and the Park Hyatt Hotel under construction. The east side is a high-end commercial and office cluster such as Daxia International Center and Qujiang International Conference Center. It is about 500 meters from the TV tower station of the subway line 2 and line 8 transfer station. The core location and surrounding facilities are quite mature. Since Yuefu was harvested in 2018 and Huarun Yuexi in 2020, there has been a shortage of pure residential land supply for many years in the northern district of Qujiang CCBD, and the current plot is scarce.

Judging from the planning conditions, the plot area ratio ranges from 1.2 to 2.5. It has a low-density space for improved product development, and the planned construction area is about 53,400 square meters. The overall volume is relatively manageable. The core location, scarce housing supply, improved product expectations, and moderate project scale have all supported CNOOC's high premium acquisition.

4. Low-density residential land in Sijing Town, Songjiang District, Shanghai: Low density combined with rail transit, consortium competed for 582 million yuan

On August 31, a low-density residential land sale was completed in Sijing Town, Songjiang District, Shanghai. A consortium composed of Star Lion Investment and Guomao Real Estate competed for 582 million yuan, with a premium rate of 16.41%. The plot has an area ratio of 1.2, a building height limit of 24 meters, and has both low-density product development conditions and rail transit advantages. The planned construction area is about 23,000 square meters, and the overall scale of the project is relatively small.

It is worth noting that the plot was jointly contested by Star Lion Investment and Guomao Real Estate. Land acquisition by consortia can not only share the pressure of land payments and subsequent development funds, but also help give full play to the advantages of different enterprises in terms of capital, products, and development management. In the current situation where housing enterprises invest more prudently, low density attributes, rail transit conditions, moderate project scale, and joint development models have all increased the attractiveness of land plots to housing enterprises. This land acquisition is another collaboration between Star Lion Investment and Guomao Real Estate. Previously, the two sides had cooperated to develop the Cuiyu Yuanshuo Project in Songjiang.

5. Shanghai Putuo Zhenru sub-center plot: sold at a floor price of 15 billion yuan, and the floor price of residential land was lower than last year's project in the same sector

On August 31, the Shanghai Putuo Zhenru Sub-Center complex was sold, and Zhonghai Real Estate competed for a reserve price of 15.019 billion yuan. The plot consists of three contiguous subplots, with a total concession area of about 11.92 hectares, and a total planned construction area of about 397,000 square meters, of which about 190,000 square meters are residential and 207,000 square meters. Since only 1 housing enterprise signed up, the plot was finally sold at the reserve price. The residential floor price was about 68,000 yuan/square meter.

Judging from regional land price comparisons, the Zhenru sector previously had a high level of popularity in the land market. The premium rate of land sold in the surrounding area in the past year has exceeded 10%. Among them, the Zhonghai Huanyu Jiuzhang plot was contested in July 2025, with a residential floor price of about 72,400 yuan/square meter, with a premium rate of 14.17%; the Cuigu Ruishi plot, which was contested by Shanghai City in September 2025, has a residential floor price of about 79,300 yuan/square meter, with a premium rate of 12.79%. The residential floor price of this plot is at a certain discount compared to all of the above projects, and CNOOC already has project development experience, and has certain cost and regional collaboration advantages after obtaining the reserve price.

However, in the planned size of the plot of nearly 400,000 square meters, the scale of the commercial office is close to that of a residential house. In the future, it is necessary to coordinate the development pace, funding arrangement, sales and operation of both residential and commercial properties. In the context of the New Deal raising the requirements for project capital utilization, the total price of 15 billion yuan places high demands on housing companies' financial strength, comprehensive development capabilities, and long-term operation capabilities.

As can also be seen from the Zhenru plot, the New Deal does not mean that large-scale projects lose their investment value, but rather that enterprises need a greater margin of safety to cover capital occupation and development cycles.

Land plots to be shot in key cities in September and the latest listing announcements

Land to be auctioned in January and September: There are still a number of plots announced before the New Deal will enter the concession stage, and housing companies' investment estimates may need to be re-calibrated

Most of the key plots sold in the first week of implementation of the New Deal were announced at the end of July. Housing companies' project research, investment estimates, and bid plans were formed relatively early, and the results of the land auction continued the existing investment arrangements to a large extent.

Next, key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu, and Xi'an are still awaiting sale of many cases of residential land announced before 8.28. Subsequent transactions will continue to test the willingness of housing enterprises to invest in the new policy environment.

According to monitoring by the China Index, out of 35 parcels of land to be sold in key cities starting in the second week of September, 27 were announced in mid-late August, just a few days after the release of the New Deal. Housing enterprises need to re-calibrate the project capital occupation cycle, repayment pace, and investment income estimates based on factors such as the promotion of existing housing sales, changes in pre-sale conditions, and backward mortgage placement nodes. The intention to participate in the auction and the upper limit of the quotation may also be adjusted accordingly.

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

2. Newly announced plot: A plot of residential land in Xiamen included the sale of an existing house in the concession conditions. The land concession was paid within two years, without interest

In the first week after the implementation of the new deal, several cities, including Chengdu, Suzhou, Tianjin, Wuhan, Guangzhou, and Xiamen, issued residential land concession announcements. Since the new deal has just been implemented, there are policy links and differences in specific project conditions in various land concession announcements. Judging from the sale conditions that have been disclosed so far, 2 plots in Lishui, Zhejiang, and 1 in Xiamen put forward existing housing sales requirements in the concession documents.

On September 1, Lishui issued a relevant land sale notice. Among them, the two commercial and residential land plots (QTGT2026-006-01 and QTGT2026-006-02) in Aunan Street in Qingtian County have a total sale area of about 64,000 square meters, a total planned construction area of about 268,000 square meters, and a total starting price of 468 million yuan. They are scheduled to be auctioned on September 23. According to the sale announcement, the two parcels of land clearly carry out existing housing sales in accordance with the requirements of the “Notice of the Ministry of Housing, Urban-Rural Development, Ministry of Natural Resources, and the General Administration of Financial Supervision on Improving the Commercial Housing Sales System” (Housing Regulations (2026) No. 3). Judging from the composition of the project, the two parcels of targeted repurchases and housing resettlement together account for more than 60%, and the sales pressure of the project is relatively manageable.

On September 3, Xiamen announced two parcels of land, 2026P13 and 2026XP07. The two parcels will be distributed within and outside the island, and differentiated housing sales management will be implemented in accordance with local policy principles. Among them, the 2026P13 plot located on the island is currently for sale. The project image progress standards are: the project has been completed and accepted, and the house has been registered for the first time. The 2026XP07 plot located outside the island can be pre-sold. The project image progress standard is: the capital invested in development and construction of the project reaches more than 25% of the total investment in the construction of the project, and the main structure of the single building is capped.

In terms of concession payment, the 2026P13 land concession fund is paid in two installments. The first installment is paid 50% of the total transaction price within 20 days, and the second installment is paid within 24 months, without interest. For the 2026XP07 new pre-sale plot, the time requirement for the first phase is 50% payment within 30 days, and the second phase also within 24 months, without interest.

Conclusions

Overall, the impact of the August 28 New Deal on the land market is still in the initial transmission stage. Most of the plots sold in the first week were projects announced before the New Deal. From an industry perspective, the increase in pre-sale conditions, the promotion of existing housing sales, and changes in the capital return cycle will further raise the funding threshold for land acquisition and development by housing enterprises. The ability of some housing enterprises to acquire land may be affected, and the differentiation of the land market is expected to further intensify.

For housing enterprises that still have the ability to invest, land acquisition will pay more attention to the safety margin of a single project. In addition to location and product premium space, the importance of factors such as project size, development cycle, land payment arrangements, and sales elimination certainty has further increased. High-quality plots in the core sector of core cities are still attractive, but high premiums require stronger project fundamentals and cash flow support.

As the land announced after the New Deal enters the concession stage one after another, the market impact and changes in housing companies' investment strategies will become more clear. The Central Index Institute will continue to track the performance of the land market in key cities and the concession conditions for newly announced plots, and further observe the actual impact of the new policy on the market and investment decisions of housing enterprises.