SoftBank (TSE:9434), Why Is It Back In The Spotlight?

Why Sceye’s ST1 mission matters for SoftBank stock

Sceye’s successful ST1 trans-Pacific flight, which used SoftBank (TSE:9434) network and HAPS-based edge computing to deliver broadband and emergency communications from the stratosphere, has sharpened investor attention on the company’s next-generation infrastructure ambitions.

SoftBank’s latest share price of ¥238.6 comes after a 90-day share price return of 12.81%, while the 1-year total shareholder return of 9.08% and 5-year total shareholder return of 87.96% point to momentum that has built gradually rather than in a single spike. The Sceye ST1 breakthrough is likely feeding into improving sentiment around its telecom infrastructure story.

Spot future telecom infrastructure stories with similar potential by scanning the hand-picked 55 AI infrastructure stocks, which could benefit as data and connectivity move closer to the edge.

After a steady 12.81% 90 day move and a 5 year total return close to 88%, the question for SoftBank now is whether the recent Sceye ST1 excitement leaves more upside ahead or mostly behind.

Most Popular Narrative: 7.1% Undervalued

SoftBank’s most followed valuation narrative sets fair value at ¥256.87, which sits above the last close at ¥238.6 and frames the Sceye story within a broader AI and infrastructure push.

Planned rollout of homegrown large language models (LLMs) and commercial GPU as a service targeting Japan-based enterprises capitalizes on surging enterprise AI adoption, which is set to accelerate recurring revenues and support margin expansion from higher-value digital infrastructure services.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is really backing that higher fair value for SoftBank? The narrative leans heavily on AI driven services, richer margins, and a premium earnings multiple. Curious which revenue and profit assumptions sit underneath those expectations?

Result: Fair Value of ¥256.87 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, SoftBank’s story can shift quickly if price competition in Japan’s wireless market bites harder, or if heavy AI and data center spending fails to match demand.

Find out about the key risks to this SoftBank narrative.

Another View on SoftBank’s valuation

While the popular SoftBank narrative leans on a fair value of ¥256.87 and labels the stock as 7.1% undervalued, its current P/E of 20.9x tells a tougher story. That level is higher than both the Asian wireless telecom average at 17.3x and a fair ratio of 13.9x, which suggests less margin for error if earnings disappoint.

For investors weighing the Sceye and AI growth story against this richer earnings multiple, the question is how much valuation risk feels acceptable if results come in closer to the industry norm or the fair ratio the market could move towards next.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With sentiment on SoftBank split between excitement and caution, it makes sense to review the full picture yourself and act promptly while the data is fresh. To see both sides in one place, review the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond SoftBank?

If you stop with SoftBank, you risk missing other opportunities. Take a few minutes to scan new ideas and pressure test your watchlist before the market moves.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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