Goldman Sachs sends a “neutral” signal to Tesla (TSLA.US): Cybercab has a significant cost advantage, but software scaling is the key to valuation

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs Group recently released a research report on Tesla (TSLA.US) to maintain a “neutral” rating, with a target price of 360 US dollars for 12 months. The bank believes that Tesla is expected to establish a significant cost advantage in the driverless taxi market through Cybercab, but the ability to scale up autonomous driving software is the core variable that determines its business prospects and valuation space.

Cybercab officially launched, unsupervised mileage surpassed one million miles

On September 3, local time, Tesla held a launch event in Austin, Texas, to officially launch the driverless taxi Cybercab and announce the start of providing paid rides in limited areas in Austin. The model eliminated traditional manual controls such as the steering wheel, brake pedal, accelerator pedal, and rearview mirror. It uses a two-seater layout and is specially designed for completely driverless driving scenarios. Tesla also announced that the “unsupervised” cumulative mileage of its Robotaxi fleet has exceeded 1 million miles. According to data from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, as of September 3, Tesla had registered 420 autonomous vehicles in Texas, of which 45 were Cybercab.

However, just a few hours after the launch campaign ended, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced the launch of a compliance review of about 1,000 Cybercabs, focusing on checking whether Tesla's self-certification process and technical basis for this model complies with federal motor vehicle safety standards. Affected by this, Tesla's stock price plummeted 5.92% on September 4 to close at 354.08 US dollars, and the market value evaporated by about 88 billion US dollars in a single day. On the previous trading day, the stock price also surged 5.42% due to the release of Cybercab.

The head of Tesla's artificial intelligence department, Ashok Eluswami later confirmed that after FSD v15 completes the next round of technology integration, the Robotaxi service is expected to operate 24 hours a day around the clock around October. FSD v15 is described by Tesla as an “architecture-level transition”. The model parameters are about 10 times larger than the current version, and there are 7 parallel improvement routes. Currently, the Robotaxi service has been put into normal operation in six US cities (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa), with daily service hours from 6:00 to 22:00.

Goldman Sachs: Software is the key to scale

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out in the research report that Tesla is focusing on building low-cost vehicles. Relying on its integrated manufacturing process and pure visual perception system, it is expected to enhance the economic benefits of the Robotaxi business. If Tesla can keep Cybercab costs within the target range of 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars during mass production, Tesla can have a cost advantage of 0.05 to 0.30 US dollars per mile compared to autonomous driving rivals with an initial cost of 50,000 to 100,000 US dollars. According to industry analysis, the estimated cost of a Cybercab bike is around $23,000 to $25,000, while a Waymo bike costs between $70,000 and $150,000.

However, Goldman Sachs also emphasized that for investors, the bigger question is whether Tesla's artificial intelligence solution can support its autonomous driving software to rapidly expand on a large scale in geographical regions. Broader operating coverage will bring in more revenue while allocating the vehicle cost base to more mileage, making software economics a more important position in Robotaxi's profit model than the price of the vehicle itself.

Scenario analysis set by Goldman Sachs shows that under an optimistic scenario, Tesla's stock price is expected to hit $500, while a pessimistic scenario could drop to around $150. Major downside risks include slowing demand for electric vehicles, increased competition, tariff pressure, delays in FSD and other product launches, and pressure on operations and margins.

The market's disagreement with Tesla remains significant. According to LSEG statistics, a total of 24 analysts currently give Tesla a “buy” or higher rating, 23 give a “hold” rating, and 7 maintain a “sell” rating or lower. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson reiterated the “sell” rating after Cybercab was released. The target price is only $24.86. He believes that Tesla's current price-earnings ratio is as high as 328 times, which is seriously overestimated by the market. Morgan Stanley maintains a “hold and see” rating with a target price of $400. Stonex, on the other hand, reaffirmed the “buy” rating after CyberCab was released, with a target price of $475.