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To own Blackstone, you generally need to believe in its ability to keep growing fee-based assets across private markets while managing liquidity and valuation risks in less liquid vehicles. The short term focus now sits on fundraising resilience and performance fees, with capped withdrawals at the Blackstone Private Credit Fund highlighting liquidity risk in semi-liquid products. This event does not yet appear to alter the core earnings story, but it does sharpen attention on redemption and credit cycle risk.
Among recent developments, the capped withdrawals at the US$77.20 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund are most relevant here, because they directly touch on liquidity, asset valuations, and future fee visibility. Alongside this, Blackstone’s moves to sell Nucleus Network and help monetize hospitality assets sit on the other side of the equation, reminding investors that realization activity and portfolio reshaping can still support earnings and distributions, even as certain pools of capital stay partially gated.
Yet investors should be aware that if redemption pressures at semi liquid funds persist or broaden, it could materially affect...
Read the full narrative on Blackstone (it's free!)
Blackstone's narrative projects $22.5 billion revenue and $9.8 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 16.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $6.7 billion earnings increase from $3.1 billion today.
Uncover how Blackstone's forecasts yield a $143.45 fair value, a 5% upside to its current price.
Compared with the baseline view, the most bullish analysts saw Blackstone potentially lifting earnings to about US$12.3 billion by 2029, yet the current redemption limits show how fast-growing private credit can also magnify liquidity and fee risks if market conditions turn.
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Blackstone - why the stock might be worth 17% less than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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