Apple Stock: September Surprise Could Be Bigger Than a New iPhone

Like every year, Apple (AAPL) has officially scheduled its next product launch event for Sept. 9, naming it “Surprise and Shine.” While the company hasn’t officially disclosed exactly what it will unveil, the tagline is enough to create curiosity. According to reports, besides the new iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, Apple's first foldable iPhone is rumored to be the main attraction.

Apple has struggled to keep pace with rivals in the artificial intelligence (AI) race. While the surprise may not be any hidden product, investors await to see any major upgrades to Apple's products under the leadership of new CEO John Ternus. Apple stock has had a strong run this year, climbing almost 21% year-to-date (YTD), outperforming the broader market. Let’s find out whether it is a good time to buy AAPL stock before the event. 

Sept. 9 Is Shaping Up to Be a Major Apple Moment

The September launch event is focused on the iPhone 18 Pro family. These Pro models are expected to use Apple's new A20 Pro chip, reportedly built using a 2-nanometer process. Furthermore, speculations suggest that these models will be launched with new colors and a redesigned camera system, including a variable-aperture main camera. These do not appear to be revolutionary changes. However, put together, they might make the fresh Pro models a more compelling upgrade for Apple’s high-end consumer base.

That said, the main highlight of the event may be Apple unveiling its first foldable iPhone, which would potentially be called the iPhone Ultra. The design is expected to be a book-style foldable measuring around 5.5 inches when closed and roughly 7.6 inches when opened. This matters because Apple has spent decades without making many substantial changes to the iPhone. However, Apple is also expected to charge a much higher price for the Ultra.

The foldable phone would definitely give Apple an entirely different hardware category to sell to its existing customer base. It would also allow Apple to enter a category where Samsung currently has an established lead. According to Reuters, IDC forecasts that global foldable-phone shipments are expected to grow by 12.6% this year. Thus, Apple would be entering the foldable market at a time when demand is rising.

This is probably why Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring believes the upcoming launch will be Apple's “most consequential" launch since the iPhone X. Morgan Stanley estimates that Apple's foldable iPhone could contribute roughly $14 billion in December-quarter revenue. Woodring expects Apple to build around 7 million to 8 million units during the second half of 2026, while total production could reach as much as 20 million units in the first product cycle.

While the forecast is very bullish, the success of the Ultra depends on whether Apple can convince customers that it is more than just another expensive new product and that is actually worth upgrading. In the June quarter, iPhone revenue alone climbed 22% year-over-year (YOY) to $54.3 billion, while total revenue increased 16% to $109.4 billion. For the September quarter, management expects 9% to 11% growth, with iPhone revenue growth in the mid-teens.

The company hasn’t provided any revenue guidance for the December quarter or the full year yet. But the consensus revenue estimate for 2026 sits at $477.7 billion, representing roughly 15% YOY growth. If Morgan Stanley’s estimates prove right, Apple's holiday-quarter sales could come in substantially stronger than expected. 

Besides the iPhone, Apple could also launch the Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4, with AirPods 5 as another possibility. However, the company is expected to delay the launch of the standard and affordable iPhone 18 models until the first half of 2027.

Apple's New CEO Makes This Launch More Important

There is another layer to why the Sept. 9 event has created more hype than just another iPhone launch. Apple entered a new leadership chapter on Sept. 1 when John Ternus took over as CEO following Tim Cook’s nearly 15 years in the role. This will be Ternus' first product launch event.

Investors generally take a C-suite leadership transition with a grain of salt until the new leadership has a chance to prove itself. While Ternus is a long-time Apple hardware executive, investors will be watching the event to see whether he can build confidence around the company's next phase.

Is Apple Stock a Buy Before Sept. 9?

At 37.1 times forward earnings, Apple stock doesn’t look like an obvious bargain heading into the event. However, the potential foldable iPhone gives the company a genuine catalyst, which has otherwise been often criticized for lacking major upgrades in its September launches. AAPL stock remains an attractive long-term buy, but it may be wise to wait until after Sept. 9 to see whether the product launches disappoint or higher prices weigh on demand and revenue. 

Overall, analysts give AAPL stock a consensus “Moderate Buy" rating. Of the 41 analysts covering the stock, 21 offer a “Strong Buy” rating, three have a “Moderate Buy,” 13 have a “Hold” rating, two have a “Moderate Sell,” and two analysts have a “Strong Sell" rating. Currently, Apple stock is trading close to its average target price of $328.70. Meanwhile, the Street-high estimate of $400 implies shares could rally as much as 22% over the next 12 months.

On the date of publication, Sushree Mohanty did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.