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    American Express (AXP) Could Be 27% Undervalued Following Its Revenue Miss

    Simply Wall St·09/06/2026 10:24:04
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    Why American Express Is Back In Focus After Its Latest Quarter

    American Express (AXP) is drawing attention after its latest quarter, where revenue grew 12.8% year on year but still fell about 5.8% short of analyst expectations.

    This contrast with stronger results from peers such as Visa, Mastercard, Synchrony Financial, and Bread Financial has sharpened questions about how American Express can support earnings and manage potential margin pressure from here.

    At a share price of $326.16, American Express has seen the share price fall 4.3% over the past month but rise 4.4% over the past quarter. The 1 year total shareholder return of 1.1% and 3 year total shareholder return above 100% point to momentum that has cooled recently compared with its longer term track record.

    Scan how American Express compares to peers on quality and valuation by reviewing our hand picked 47 high quality undervalued stocks.

    After that mixed quarter and a share price that has cooled while still sitting below most analyst and intrinsic value estimates, the real tension is simple: Is American Express already pricing in the bad news or not yet?

    Most Popular Narrative: 26.6% Undervalued

    According to the most followed narrative on American Express, the current share price of $326.16 sits well below an implied fair value of $444.11. This frames today’s pullback as a potential mispricing rather than a verdict on the business.

    American Express has spent 176 years proving that trust is not a sentimental accessory added after the financial analysis. Trust is the productive asset. It is what allows the company to convert a customer's reputation into merchant fees, interest income, annual fees, and enormous purchasing volume.

    Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

    The fair value hinges on American Express maintaining strong profitability, solid revenue growth and premium economics from its closed loop network. Investors may be curious which growth, margin and return assumptions support that $444.11 figure and how they compare with current sentiment around regulation and capital returns.

    Result: Fair Value of $444.11 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, American Express still faces two clear risks that could challenge this undervalued story: a tougher than expected AML enforcement outcome and tighter Category II capital requirements.

    Find out about the key risks to this American Express narrative.

    Next Steps

    With investors divided between concern and optimism around American Express, it can be useful to move quickly and test the story against your own thresholds. To weigh the risks against the potential rewards in one place, review the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond American Express?

    If the American Express story has sharpened your thinking, do not stop there. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to line up your next potential opportunities.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.