How NiSource’s (NI) New Amazon and Alphabet Data Center Deals Have Changed Its Investment Story

• In the past quarter, NiSource Inc. reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings that exceeded estimates but fell year over year, while securing regulatory approvals for special data center contracts with Amazon and Alphabet that are expected to deliver significant savings for existing customers.
• By reaffirming its 2026 consolidated adjusted earnings guidance and pressing ahead with a large, multi-year capital investment plan, NiSource is tying its long-term regulated utility growth to the expanding power needs of data centers and broader grid modernization.
• Next, we’ll examine how the new data center contracts with Amazon and Alphabet may reshape NiSource’s long-term investment narrative.

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NiSource Investment Narrative Recap

To own NiSource, you need to believe in the stability of a regulated utility that is investing heavily in grid and gas system modernization while gradually aligning with large-scale data center demand. The latest quarter’s earnings beat but year over year decline, together with reaffirmed 2026 guidance, suggest the Amazon and Alphabet contracts do not materially change the near term picture: the key catalyst remains timely cost recovery on the capital plan, while the biggest current risk is regulatory pushback on gas-focused investment.

The most relevant recent development here is the Indiana regulator’s approval of NiSource’s agreements supporting the Amazon data center load, including the special contract and related generation resources. Management highlights a framework designed to protect existing customers and deliver about US$1,400 million in bill savings, which ties directly into the near term catalyst of constructive rate treatment and the longer term question of whether regulators will continue to endorse this level of grid and generation spending.

Yet even with these approvals, investors should be aware that the large, gas heavy capital plan still leaves NiSource exposed to...

Read the full narrative on NiSource (it's free!)

NiSource's narrative projects $8.4 billion revenue and $1.3 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 6.8% yearly revenue growth and a $394.0 million earnings increase from $906.0 million today.

Uncover how NiSource's forecasts yield a $50.03 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$35.97 to US$50.03, showing how far apart individual views can be. You can weigh those against the recent data center approvals and ongoing grid and gas investment needs, which together may shape how comfortably NiSource can support its earnings targets over time.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on NiSource - why the stock might be worth 13% less than the current price!

Form Your Own Verdict

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your NiSource research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free NiSource research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate NiSource's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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