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To own Spire, you need to believe in the resilience of its regulated gas utility model and its ability to earn acceptable returns on ongoing infrastructure investment despite regulatory and decarbonization pressures. The wider-than-expected quarterly loss, alongside the new US$400 million short-term loan, does not appear to materially change the near term catalyst of executing its capital program or the key risk around regulatory cost recovery and long term gas demand.
The new US$400 million delayed draw term loan stands out because it directly links to one of Spire’s biggest current sensitivities: funding substantial capital expenditure while its interest coverage and free cash flow remain under pressure. How effectively the company balances this short dated borrowing with its dividend commitments and regulatory relationships will be central to how the catalyst of ongoing earnings growth plays out.
Yet against this backdrop, investors should be aware that Spire’s dependence on continued regulatory approval for recovering rising capital and financing costs...
Read the full narrative on Spire (it's free!)
Spire's narrative projects $3.2 billion revenue and $379.2 million earnings by 2029.
Uncover how Spire's forecasts yield a $95.00 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.
One Simply Wall St Community member values Spire at US$58.81 per share, far below recent trading levels, underscoring how far opinions can diverge. You should weigh that cautious view against the current need for heavy, regulator approved infrastructure spending and consider how different scenarios could play out for the business.
Explore another fair value estimate on Spire - why the stock might be worth 29% less than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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