Meituan (SEHK:3690) Could Be 16% Overvalued As Half Year Profit Turned To Loss

What Meituan’s Half Year 2026 Results Tell You

Meituan (SEHK:3690) released half year 2026 results that combined higher sales with a swing into loss. This mix of revenue growth and weaker profitability is shaping how investors reassess the stock.

For the half year to 30 June 2026, Meituan reported sales of CNY 195,681.95 million compared with CNY 177,696.36 million a year earlier. Despite this, the company moved from net income of CNY 10,421.64 million to a net loss of CNY 4,672.49 million.

Basic loss per share from continuing operations was CNY 0.76, compared with basic earnings per share of CNY 1.72 in the prior year period. Diluted loss per share from continuing operations was CNY 0.82, compared with diluted earnings per share of CNY 1.61 a year earlier.

Meituan’s half year 2026 loss arrived alongside a 1 day share price return of 5.28% and a 7 day share price return of 5.48%. However, the 30 day share price return of 12.14% and year to date share price return of 21.85% show momentum has been fading, which lines up with a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 20.63% and deeper falls over 3 and 5 years.

Compare Meituan’s setback with other consumer service stocks that still show strong fundamentals using our curated list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (438 results) to see where capital is holding up better.

Meituan now trades with a long stretch of weak multi year returns, a recent drop over 30 days and fresh half year losses. After that reset, does the balance of risk and reward still lean toward buyers?

Most Popular Narrative: 16.2% Overvalued

At a last close of HK$81.75, Meituan screens above the most followed narrative fair value of HK$70.34, which frames a cautious view on the stock.

Fierce competition in both food delivery and on-demand retail is now requiring Meituan to significantly increase spending on subsidies for couriers and user incentives, driving up cost of revenue and causing operating profit and net margins to decline sharply. With no signs of market normalization, persistent price wars could lead to long-term margin compression and structurally weaker earnings.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies paying above that HK$70.34 fair value mark for Meituan? The narrative leans heavily on a sharp swing in earnings, slower but steady revenue expansion and a richer future profit multiple. The precise mix of growth, margins and required return may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of HK$70.34 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if Meituan’s AI driven efficiency gains start to cut fulfillment costs and its broader ecosystem deepens user engagement, the margin story could look very different.

Find out about the key risks to this Meituan narrative.

Another View on Meituan’s Valuation

The narrative fair value of HK$70.34 suggests Meituan is 16.2% overvalued at HK$81.75. However, our DCF model indicates an estimated future cash flow value of HK$228.06, which is significantly higher than the current price. Which perspective do you consider more useful for a long term view?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Next Steps

If this mix of weak multi year returns and contrasting valuation signals around Meituan leaves you unsure, take a closer look now and form your own conclusion by reviewing the 2 key rewards.

Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond Meituan?

If Meituan’s mixed signals have you rethinking concentration risk, now is a smart moment to scan other opportunities using targeted screeners before the crowd catches up.

• Target resilient cash generators with strong fundamentals by running a focused search through our 257 high quality undervalued stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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