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    Energy Transfer (ET) Could Be 11% Below Fair Value On Higher 2026 EBITDA Guidance

    Simply Wall St·09/05/2026 00:31:10
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    Energy Transfer (ET) drew fresh attention after reporting second quarter 2026 earnings of $0.59 per unit and lifting its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a projected range of $18.8b to $19.1b.

    Energy Transfer’s latest earnings beat and higher 2026 EBITDA guidance have arrived alongside firm share price momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 5.7% and a year to date share price return of 29.6%. The 5 year total shareholder return of 243.06% points to a strong longer term payoff profile.

    Ride Energy Transfer’s momentum and compare it with a curated group of infrastructure heavyweights in our 39 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks.

    Energy Transfer’s unit price has run hard, yet it still trades below the average analyst target and well under some intrinsic value estimates. Is that gap a genuine margin of safety, or a warning signal before you pay up further?

    Most Popular Narrative: 11% Undervalued

    The most widely followed narrative for Energy Transfer puts fair value at about $24.10 per unit, compared with the latest close around $21.50. That gap rests on a detailed outlook for revenue, margins and project-driven earnings rather than short term trading swings.

    The company's NGL export capacity expansions at the Nederland terminal and new pipeline loopings position it to benefit from increased U.S. hydrocarbon exports to international markets, supporting sustained throughput and export revenues as global energy demand rises.

    Recent long-term, investment-grade customer commitments on multi-billion-dollar projects de-risk cash flows and improve visibility into earnings growth, while the buildout of vertically integrated infrastructure (like Lake Charles LNG tied to ET pipelines) enhances both margins and return on invested capital.

    Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what sits behind that fair value for Energy Transfer? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion, fatter margins and a richer earnings multiple. It combines modest volume growth, higher fee based cash flows and a specific future profit target. The notable element is how long dated contracts, export projects and a defined discount rate all feed into that number.

    Result: Fair Value of $24.10 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this Energy Transfer narrative can change if large multi year projects encounter cost or permitting problems, or if weaker Bakken and Permian volumes persist.

    Find out about the key risks to this Energy Transfer narrative.

    Next Steps

    If the Energy Transfer story so far appears balanced between promise and risk, move quickly and test that view against the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Energy Transfer?

    If Energy Transfer has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with focused stock ideas that match your risk, income and quality preferences.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.