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According to CME's “Federal Reserve Watch”, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 58.6%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until October is 31.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.3%.

Zhitongcaijing·09/04/2026 22:09:03
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According to CME's “Federal Reserve Watch”, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 58.6%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until October is 31.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.3%.