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    The Bull Case For Tamboran Resources (ASX:TBN) Could Change Following Beetaloo Gas Commissioning Milestone

    Simply Wall St·09/04/2026 11:31:22
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    • Tamboran Resources Corporation has commenced gas commissioning of the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility, a 50 TJ/d plant in the Beetaloo Basin, using gas from five Shenandoah South 2 pad wells to supply up to 40 TJ/d to the Northern Territory Government under a long-term gas sales agreement.
    • This step moves Tamboran’s Shenandoah South Pilot Area from project build-out toward contracted production, with the compression facility reported on schedule and within its P50 gross budget of A$141 million (US$99 million).
    • We’ll now explore how moving the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility into gas commissioning reshapes Tamboran’s investment narrative and future cash-flow visibility.

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    Tamboran Resources Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Tamboran, you need to believe its Beetaloo Basin gas can transition from a capital intensive pilot phase into reliable, long term contracted production. Gas commissioning of the 50 TJ/d Sturt Plateau Compression Facility directly supports the key near term catalyst of first sales to the Northern Territory Government, while partially easing, but not removing, the current execution risk around timing of initial revenue and cash flow.

    The most relevant recent announcement here is the gas commissioning update itself, which confirms the facility remains on schedule and within its P50 gross budget of A$141,000,000 (US$99,000,000). With all five Shenandoah South 2 pad wells drilled, stimulated and tied in, this step connects earlier well results and infrastructure spend to the core catalyst of contracted volumes under the up to 14 year take or pay gas sales agreement with the Northern Territory Government.

    Yet, investors should be aware that if commissioning or early production underperforms, the timing of cash flows and funding needs could...

    Read the full narrative on Tamboran Resources (it's free!)

    Tamboran Resources' narrative projects $55.5 million revenue and $8.9 million earnings by 2029. This implies an $43.3 million earnings increase from -$34.4 million today.

    Uncover how Tamboran Resources' forecasts yield a A$0.376 fair value, a 37% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ASX:TBN 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ASX:TBN 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from US$0.20 to US$12.55, reflecting sharply different views on Tamboran’s potential. When you set these against the current reliance on external funding and the execution risk around bringing the Beetaloo pilot into sustained contracted production, it underlines why comparing several viewpoints on the stock’s prospects can be valuable.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Tamboran Resources - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.