Bitcoin Cycle Reengineering: Shifting from 4-Year Halving to a 6-8 Year Wall Street Rhythm

According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a paradigm shift from the traditional four-year cycle to a 6- to 8-year Wall Street rhythm. Analyst Wu believes this shift marks a reshaping of asset pricing power by macro factors.

Bitcoin was halved in April 2024, and the block reward was reduced to 3.125 bitcoins, adding an annual supply of about 164,250 bitcoins, accounting for 0.82% of the total circulation. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, it is expected that after the next halving in 2028, annual additions will be further reduced to 82,125 bitcoins, accounting for 0.41%, and the supply shock effect will decrease significantly.

In contrast, institutional channels such as exchange-traded products and corporate bonds have accumulated more than 2.7 million bitcoins, more than 16 times the annual output of miners. As these assets are deposited on corporate balance sheets and regulated investment products, the marginal impact of new miner supply on the market continues to weaken, and institutional holdings become the dominant variable.

The credit environment, global liquidity, and portfolio capital flows are replacing the halving event as core drivers. Monetary policy is intertwined with investors' mentality, so that the four-year cycle rule is only of reference significance. Although the 6 to 8-year cycle theory has not been fully confirmed, it clearly reflects Bitcoin's new operating logic after financialization.