US bond yields soared, and the dollar weakened, and Bitcoin logic was completely restructured

According to Woofun AI, the traditional safe-haven logic that has dominated the currency market for a long time is facing a fundamental collapse, and the asset positions of Bitcoin and gold have been structurally reversed as a result. In the past, the market generally believed that rising yields on developed country treasury bonds would suppress unprofitable assets such as Bitcoin, and believed that capital would naturally flow to bonds that provided a margin of safety.

However, the actual trading behavior of the foreign exchange market has clearly abandoned this old paradigm. Investors no longer regard high yields as a reflection of financial strength, but rather interpret them as a dangerous sign of increased pressure on government debt. This shift in perception directly reshapes the macro-narrative foundation of crypto assets.

The divergence in macro data provides empirical support for this logical restructuring. The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds rose sharply by 58 basis points this year, hitting 4.81% this week, a new high since October 2023. According to conventional theory, such a significant spread advantage should attract a large influx of foreign capital, thereby strengthening the dollar. However, the reality was quite the opposite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose only slightly by 0.9% and remained around 99.22 points, showing that the market lacked confidence in the dollar's purchasing power.

The more critical variables are the performance of other major economies: German 10-year yield rose 45 basis points this year, lower than the US; while Japan's 10-year yield soared 90 basis points, the yen fell to its lowest level in more than 40 years.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that this serious disconnect between yield and exchange rate trends indicates that global capital is repricing sovereign credit risk. High yields are no longer an engine for currency appreciation, but a warning indicator of fiscal unsustainability.

Under a new consensus that rising yields meant trouble, the market quickly reacted to assets that were in constant supply and could not be diluted by the government by printing money. Analysts pointed out that financial repressive policies aimed at reducing debt burdens through low interest rates and currency depreciation adjusted for low inflation actually constituted long-term benefits for Bitcoin and gold. The current weak trend in the US Dollar Index (DXY) further confirms this trend. Bitcoin is trading close to $77,700, up 0.8% from midnight Coordinated Universal Time.

Meanwhile, ARB increased 20% and LIT increased 12%, indicating that risk appetite funding is being actively deployed. Developments at the regulatory level are also injecting certainty into the market. US Securities and Exchange Committee Chairman Paul Atkins confirmed in an interview with Fox Finance Network that the US Senate is scheduled to hold a key vote on the motion to advance the “Clarity Act” on September 15, 2026. This legislative milestone is expected to provide a clearer compliance framework for the crypto industry.

Energy market signals reveal potential policy conflicts. The WTI crude oil futures weekly price fluctuation chart shows that the 50-week EMA and 200-week EMA have formed a “gold fork”. This long-term bullish signal indicates that energy prices may continue to rise in the coming months. Higher energy prices usually increase inflationary pressure, which in turn strengthens market expectations that the Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates.

However, some analysts warned that raising interest rates when oil prices fluctuate sharply is a wrong decision, which may trigger the risk of a hard landing for the economy. This macroeconomic policy dilemma further highlights the strategic significance of Bitcoin as a non-sovereign value storage tool. Its price performance no longer simply follows the traditional interest rate cycle, but more reflects a revaluation of the long-term credit of the fiat currency system.