The number of layoffs of US companies in the first 8 months hit a four-year low, and the “low recruitment, low sanctions” pattern continues

The Zhitong Finance App learned that in the first eight months of 2026, the number of planned layoffs in US companies fell to the lowest level in four years, further indicating that companies are still unwilling to reduce the size of their employees. According to data released by the US employment consulting agency Challenger, Gray & Christmas (Challenger, Gray & Christmas) on Thursday, companies have announced 529,914 layoffs so far this year, the lowest in the same period since 2022. At that time, labor demand was still very strong after the pandemic. Meanwhile, in the eight months up to August, the number of corporate recruitment plans was the highest since 2023.

Andy Challenger, the company's chief revenue officer, said, “We expect recruitment activities to increase as the number of layoffs decreases. According to our data, even though companies have made more recruitment plans than last year, these positions don't seem to be being filled quickly.”

Many economists still believe that the US job market is still in the “low recruitment and low dismissal” state that has prevailed in the past few years. According to the weekly initial jobless claims data, there are no obvious signs of large-scale layoffs, and the monthly employment report to be released on Friday evening is expected to show that the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.1% in August.

The Challenger report also pointed out that for the first time since February, artificial intelligence is no longer the primary reason mentioned when companies announced layoffs, and “restructuring” topped the list of reasons for layoffs in August. However, judging from the situation from the beginning of the year to date, artificial intelligence is still the main reason for layoffs.

It is worth noting that the non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday is not only a “medical checklist” for the job market, but also one of the most important economic data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in mid-September. The market expects the total number of non-farm payrolls to increase by 55,000 in August, rebounding from the weak performance of an unexpected drop of 23,000 in July.

However, the Bank of America believes that the upcoming non-farm payrolls report is only an “appetizer” before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting from September 15 to 16 — non-farm payrolls data is unlikely to be a decisive factor in raising interest rates; what really matters is the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced on September 11. The market expects an inflation rate of 3.4%, the same as in July, but considering geopolitical pressure, the actual inflation rate may be higher than expected. Bank of America maintains expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in September.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September fell back to about 60% from about 68% the previous day. As the number of “small non-farmers” employed in the US private sector fell short of market expectations, the market's bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in September have cooled down.