P/F Bakkafrost Just Missed Earnings With A Surprise Loss - Here Are Analysts Latest Forecasts

It's been a sad week for P/F Bakkafrost (OB:BAKKA), who've watched their investment drop 12% to kr445 in the week since the company reported its second-quarter result. Revenues missed expectations, with revenue of kr.1.8b falling 18% short of forecasts. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with P/F Bakkafrost reporting a statutory loss of kr.2.71 per share, where the analysts were expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from P/F Bakkafrost's eight analysts is for revenues of kr.8.01b in 2026. This would reflect a credible 7.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 21% to kr.10.89 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr.8.44b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr.16.10 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for P/F Bakkafrost

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the kr479 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values P/F Bakkafrost at kr537 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr388. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that P/F Bakkafrost's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.8% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect P/F Bakkafrost to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for P/F Bakkafrost. They also downgraded P/F Bakkafrost's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on P/F Bakkafrost. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple P/F Bakkafrost analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether P/F Bakkafrost's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.