Oil prices of $90 and employment of 7.3 million: Bitcoin breaks 77,000 and falls into the headwind of interest rate hikes

According to Woofun AI, the price of Bitcoin is around $76,985, and this market performance is in stark contrast to deep macroeconomic contradictions. Despite the rebound in the cryptocurrency market, the Federal Reserve is facing tough policy choices: on the one hand, the price of oil soared to $90 per barrel, which continues to boost inflation expectations; on the other hand, the number of new jobs added in July was only 7.3 million, and the labor market showed clear signs of cooling.

This combination of 'high inflation and weak employment' has made the monetary policy path extremely complicated, and market sentiment fluctuates sharply between the fantasy of interest rate cuts and the reality of interest rate hikes. Bitcoin's price performance is not an isolated event, but rather an expression of risk appetite for the current macroeconomic uncertainty, but the underlying fundamental pressure has not been eliminated; on the contrary, it has been further exacerbated by rising energy costs and higher bond yields. While chasing short-term price fluctuations, investors must face up to the systemic risks brought about by the Federal Reserve's policy shift. Any optimistic expectations that ignore macroeconomic headwinds may face severe tests.

An in-depth analysis of the divergence between employment data and inflation indicators reveals that market logic is undergoing a fundamental restructuring. Bitcoin was trading at around $76,985 at press time, and behind this figure is a repricing of the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy. JOLTS (Job Vacancy Data) did not increase tension as expected by some hawks. Instead, it showed weak recruitment activity, which provided empirical support for the cooling of the labor market.

However, inflationary pressure has not abated as a result. Walsh made it clear at the Jackson Hole Conference that although the unemployment rate is abnormally low, this is more a reflection of the trend of workers and employers re-matching jobs after the pandemic, rather than the overheating of the labor market. He still sees inflation as a core threat, and this position is supported by the latest data. The price segment of the ISM Manufacturing Index remained high at 71.1 for the second month in a row. Respondents generally reported that commodity prices such as fuel and petroleum products were rising.

Notably, data compiled by Woofun AI shows that although overall commodity prices do not fluctuate much, the structural rise in energy costs is eroding corporate profits and being transmitted to the final consumer side. Entering 2026, the Federal Reserve was originally expected to cut interest rates several times, but now the market believes that the probability of raising interest rates again is even greater.

This reversal of expectations means that Bitcoin is facing a more severe macro environment than anticipated at the beginning of the year. The rise in US bond yields has not only increased returns on risk-free assets, but also increased the cost of holding non-income assets. The strengthening of the US dollar has further exacerbated financial austerity in the speculative market.

The transmission mechanism of oil prices to the economy and their impact on asset allocation is a key variable in understanding current market pressure. The rebound in crude oil prices to $90 per barrel not only directly boosted transportation and production costs, but also caused a double squeeze on the real economy by reducing household purchasing power and reducing corporate profit margins. Increased consumer spending on fuel will inevitably lead to a reduction in capital in other consumer sectors; while companies facing rising costs may respond by cutting investment or reducing recruitment, which further worsens the prospects of the job market. Thorne pointed out that the Federal Reserve can reduce domestic demand by raising borrowing costs, thereby curbing inflation, but it cannot increase oil supply, nor can it resolve the geopolitical issues that cause crude oil prices to rise.

This limitation is particularly important as labor-market conditions deteriorate further. The July JOLTS data and the latest ISM employment index both showed a downward trend, indicating that the weak job market is a fact, but these data have yet to form a turning point sufficient to completely dispel Walsh's concerns about inflation.

Meanwhile, recent data on ETF funding flows shows that some of the pressure has begun to affect cryptocurrency portfolios. The rise in US Treasury bond yields has made dollar assets more attractive, and has also raised the investment threshold for risky assets such as Bitcoin. This financial restructuring is reshaping the market pattern.

The release of key data in the next few weeks will determine the Fed's policy path and market direction. Wage data for August will be released on September 4, followed by producer price data for September 10 and consumer price data for September 11, and the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on September 16.

If wage data weakens drastically, Walsh's view that “the employment situation is still comparable to the level of full employment” will be challenged, and the market may re-evaluate the need to raise interest rates. Conversely, if oil prices remain high and inflation data slow enough, the labor market continues to deteriorate and external supply shocks coexist, leading to an even more difficult situation.

Under such circumstances, the Federal Reserve may be forced to make a difficult choice between curbing inflation and preventing a recession, and short-term bond yields may rise again. For Bitcoin investors, the results of the September 15-16 meeting will be a key weather vane, and any policy misjudgment could cause sharp market fluctuations. In the current context of extremely high macroeconomic uncertainty, paying close attention to data details and policy signals is the only way to avoid risks and seize opportunities.