After plummeting 53%, IBIT (IBIT.US) only narrowly beat the S&P 500, BlackRock (BLK.US) recommended a 2% position

According to Woofun AI, BlackRock (BLK.US)'s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US)) experienced sharp fluctuations, and its cumulative return was only 1.60 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 index tracking fund VOO (VOO.US) by a narrow margin of 1.60 percentage points. This result reveals the convergence of volatile assets in terms of long-term returns.

Balchunas compared the approximately 70% increase in IBIT (IBIT.US) to the “El Toro” roller coaster at Six Flags Adventure, and described the rise in VOO (VOO.US) as an easy walk. He pointed out that this result was particularly surprising given the bearish atmosphere Bitcoin was in from October to July. Once you consider the path investors have gone through to achieve these gains, the similarities between the two will disappear — IBIT (IBIT.US) saw its worst peak drop of 53.30% between October 6, 2025 and June 30, 2026, while VOO (VOO.US)'s biggest retracement over the same period was 18.69%, which occurred between February 19 and April 8, 2025. Investors who bought both funds at the same time when IBIT (IBIT.US) was launched had roughly the same cumulative earnings as of August 31, yet investors holding Bitcoin ETFs had to bear the loss of the fund falling by more than half from its peak.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that this extreme volatility significantly differentiates risk-adjusted returns.

When the US Bitcoin Spot ETF went public in January 2024, Bitcoin traded at around $47,000; after Donald Trump won the election, its price climbed to a record high of around $126,000 in 2025.

However, its price dropped to around $58,000 again this year, and had recovered to around $77,000 at the time of reporting. Despite this high level of volatility, Wall Street is still building a better infrastructure around this asset. BlackRock (BLK.US) advises investors looking to diversify their assets and obtain long-term returns to set a 2% share of Bitcoin in their portfolios.

At the same time, this comparison also shows that these two funds are at very different stages of development — VOO (VOO.US) clearly belongs to another tier. As a pioneer pilot fund that tracks the S&P 500 index and provides investors with extensive investment opportunities in large US stocks, its net assets surpassed $1 trillion in June 2026, making it the first ETF to reach this scale.