MAR-MAY Sugar #11 SPREAD (SBH27-SBK27) - WALSH PURE SPREADER

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RICH MORAN                                                                                                                        9/2/2026

MAR-MAY Sugar #11 SPREAD (SBH27-SBK27)

The Sugar #11 market has been rallying since the MAR #11 Sugar contract (SBH27) traded 15.28 on 7/31/26 right up through today where it settled 19.64.  It has not settled below the 14-day moving average or the 21-day moving average that entire time.  It appears this surge in Sugar #11 over the past month or so is the result of an expected global sugar deficit. 

Last month Covrig Analytics changed its estimates for global sugar in 2026-27 to a deficit of 300,000 MT from a surplus of 100,000 MT that they reported in June.  Other organizations, such as Green Pool Commodity Specialists, have made similar adjustments to their forecasts.  As a matter of fact, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) just projected a sugar deficit of 300,000 MT for 2026-27 as well.

India, the world’s second largest sugar producing country, relies on its monsoon season for the necessary rainfall to produce its sugar.  The monsoons (rainfall) numbers are expected to be very low and could end up being the lowest in more than 10 years.  India is almost always an exporter of sugar, but there is a good possibility that it may need to import a significant amount of sugar this time around.  That has not happened since 2017-18.  The European Union and the UK are having hot and dry issues of their own that is affecting their sugar production.  Brazil’s sugar production is expected to be low as well.

Nothing is always in commodity futures spreads, but in general Sugar #11 spreads are directional. What I mean by that is the front month will often lead the way.  So, if Sugar #11 rallies, Sugar #11 spreads will commonly go up as well.

I feel there is still more room for Sugar #11 on the upside, so I am suggesting we try to buy the MAR-MAY Sugar #11 Spread (SBH27-SBK27) at 0.62.

If you are able to buy this spread at 0.62 :

Risk 0.33 (price of 0.29) or $369.69 Per Spread to make 0.57 (price 1.19) or $638.40 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

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Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.com

Direct: (312)985-0298 

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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