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    The Bull Case For BHP Group (ASX:BHP) Could Change Following New Copper-Water Recovery Pilots - Learn Why

    Simply Wall St·09/01/2026 19:24:42
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    • In August 2026, SiTration and BHP announced two pilot deployments at BHP’s Copper Cities site in Arizona to test SiTration’s chemical-free, low-waste technology for producing copper from legacy mining water, including a larger trial targeting up to two tonnes of commercial-scale copper cathodes over two months.
    • The collaboration highlights how reprocessing legacy mining water using lower-energy, filtration-and-electro-extraction techniques could open new sources of critical minerals while reducing environmental impact at historic sites.
    • We’ll now examine how this copper recovery pilot, focused on extracting metal from legacy mining water, may influence BHP’s broader investment narrative.

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    BHP Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own BHP today, you need to believe in its ability to keep turning large, long life iron ore and copper assets into dependable cash flow, while managing cost and project execution risks. The SiTration copper recovery pilot is interesting from an ESG and technology angle, but it is not a material near term catalyst compared with iron ore price exposure, execution at Jansen and broader inflationary pressures.

    The most relevant recent announcement alongside the SiTration news is BHP’s FY2026 result, with US$58,760 million of sales and US$9,833 million of net income. This underlines how small pilot projects currently sit against the scale of the existing portfolio, even as they hint at new ways BHP might address future water constraints and regulatory scrutiny around waste and decarbonization in its copper business.

    Yet against this backdrop, investors should also weigh the risk that higher regulatory and ESG costs could eventually reshape BHP’s returns profile...

    Read the full narrative on BHP Group (it's free!)

    BHP Group's narrative projects $56.1 billion revenue and $13.3 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 1.3% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $3.1 billion from $10.2 billion.

    Uncover how BHP Group's forecasts yield a A$61.02 fair value, a 9% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming BHP could reach about US$62.0 billion of revenue and US$14.4 billion of earnings by 2029, which is far more upbeat than consensus and could be challenged if issues like Port Hedland strike risk and new technologies such as the SiTration pilot change how reliable today’s iron ore and copper assumptions really are.

    Explore 16 other fair value estimates on BHP Group - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Decide For Yourself

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.