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To own XP today, you generally need to believe in its ability to keep converting Brazil’s growing investment activity into steady earnings while defending its fee levels against banks and fintechs. The Q2 2026 print, with higher revenue and net income year on year, supports the short term catalyst of solid execution, but does not materially change the biggest risk right now, which is ongoing fee pressure and competition for assets from incumbents and digital challengers.
Among recent announcements, the most relevant alongside these results is XP’s ongoing buyback activity, with about BRL 1,000 million already deployed under the November 2025 program and a new BRL 1,000 million authorization in May 2026. If XP can keep growing earnings while reducing its share count, that could reinforce the earnings per share story that many investors are watching as a key near term driver.
Yet despite this progress, the risk that fee compression and intense competition could quietly eat into XP’s future economics is something investors should be aware of...
Read the full narrative on XP (it's free!)
XP’s narrative projects R$25.8 billion in revenue and R$7.1 billion in earnings by 2029.
Uncover how XP's forecasts yield a $23.17 fair value, a 27% upside to its current price.
Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already cautious, assuming revenue around R$24.5 billion and earnings of R$7.2 billion by 2029, and this quarter’s solid numbers could either challenge or reinforce that more pessimistic view, depending on whether you think today’s fee pressures will intensify or ease over time.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on XP - why the stock might be worth just $22.99!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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